Ohio State’s National Title Odds Get Shorter After Historic 20-Point Collapse Loss to Texas

Ohio State suffered one of the most stunning collapses in college football history on Saturday, blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead in a 24-23 loss at Texas. Yet in the days since, the Buckeyes’ national championship odds have gotten shorter, not longer — a rare instance of a team’s title price improving immediately after an embarrassing defeat.

Ohio State entered the game as the AP No. 1 team and led 23-3 in the third quarter, with ESPN’s win probability model peaking at 98.3 percent. Texas responded with 21 unanswered points, scoring on three straight fourth-quarter drives to complete the largest fourth-quarter comeback against an AP No. 1 team on record. According to ESPN Research, Ohio State became the first AP No. 1 team since 2004 to lose after leading by at least 20 points in the fourth quarter — AP No. 1 teams had been a combined 197-0 in that situation over the previous 22 years.

A Historic Collapse Under Ryan Day

The loss dropped Ohio State from No. 1 to No. 6 in the AP poll while Texas jumped to No. 1. It was also the third loss in Ohio State’s last four games, following defeats to Indiana in last season’s Big Ten Championship and to Miami in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal. Head coach Ryan Day, who owns an 83-13 record at Ohio State and led the program to a national title two seasons ago, acknowledged after the game that his staff chose to play defense rather than allow Texas to score on a late fourth-and-goal situation — a decision he later admitted was the wrong call in hindsight. Day said Tuesday that the collapse is “going to force us to make some hard decisions,” noting the Buckeyes are 6-8 under his watch in games decided by seven points or fewer since 2019.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning led the Longhorns’ rally, finding tight end Emaree Winston on a fourth-and-9 conversion that sparked the comeback before Hollywood Smothers punched in the go-ahead touchdown from a yard out with 25 seconds remaining. The win marked Texas’s largest fourth-quarter rally against a No. 1 team and only the fifth 20-plus-point comeback in program history.

Why Ohio State’s Title Odds Actually Improved

Despite the collapse, sportsbooks moved Ohio State’s national championship odds from +600 the week before the game to as short as +500 and +510 following the loss — the best (shortest) national title price of any team in college football, ahead of new No. 1 Texas, which sits between +600 and +650 depending on the book. One trading manager said the Buckeyes have been the most-bet team to win the national title since Saturday’s collapse, calling the market reaction a sign that bettors “aren’t worried” about the loss itself. ESPN’s Football Power Index similarly moved Ohio State up to No. 1 overall after the game, giving the Buckeyes a 25 percent chance to win out the remainder of the season and a 16.4 percent championship probability, both among the top figures in the country.

The College Football Playoff market tells a similar story. Ohio State’s odds to miss the 12-team field lengthened from +154 to +280 after the loss, according to ESPN’s betting desk — meaning the market now views a playoff miss as less likely for the Buckeyes than it did before they lost to Texas, largely because their overall body of work and remaining schedule still project favorably. Multiple sportsbooks still list Ohio State around -290 to -310 to make the playoff field, implying roughly a 75 percent probability. The Buckeyes still have Big Ten matchups against Indiana, Oregon, Iowa, USC and Michigan ahead, along with a home game against Kent State, giving oddsmakers a long runway to judge whether Saturday’s meltdown was an aberration or a preview of a familiar late-game pattern under Day. For bettors, the futures market is effectively saying the same thing FPI’s model is: a bad fourth quarter didn’t change who has the most talent or the best remaining path — it just raised uncomfortable questions about whether Ohio State can close out a game when it matters most.