Casey Mize Trending as Padres Turn to Ex-Tigers Ace Amid Rocky Post-Trade Stretch

Casey Mize takes the mound Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds carrying one of the more unusual storylines in baseball this season: a career-best campaign that got him traded away from the only organization he’d ever known. The former No. 1 overall pick starts for the San Diego Padres at Great American Ball Park, making his 22nd start of 2026 and his sixth since a blockbuster trade-deadline deal ended his run with the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit selected Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, and he debuted in the majors in August 2020. After battling injuries and inconsistency through his first several seasons, the right-hander broke out in 2026, earning his first All-Star selection while posting career bests in ERA, strikeout rate and exit velocity allowed. That breakout made him one of the most coveted arms on the trade market — and ultimately the reason Detroit shipped him out of town.

The Trade That Changed Everything

On August 3, with the Tigers fading from playoff contention, Detroit sent Mize and infielder/outfielder Gage Workman to San Diego in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Kash Mayfield and fellow lefty Jackson Wolf. The move came just days after the Tigers dealt two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers, a stunning one-two punch that signaled Detroit’s front office had officially waved the white flag on 2026. Mayfield, ranked as the No. 2 prospect and top pitcher in San Diego’s farm system by MLB Pipeline, instantly became one of Detroit’s top prospects in return.

For Mize, the move meant leaving the only franchise he’d ever pitched for and stepping into a Padres rotation fighting for a playoff spot down the stretch. He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, adding extra intrigue to how he finishes out the year in a new uniform — and how much it will matter for his next contract, whether that’s negotiated through a traditional front office or one of the growing number of fans tracking value through sports betting apps as they follow the stretch run.

A Rocky Landing in San Diego

The transition has not been smooth. Mize was hammered for eight runs over 3.1 innings in his Padres debut against Arizona, and while he settled in for a strong follow-up start against Milwaukee, his stretch since the trade has been defined by volatility. Over his last five outings, Mize carries a 1-2 record and a 6.26 ERA, having allowed 21 runs — 16 of them earned — across just 23 innings. That skid includes an August 22 start against Minnesota that ended early after Mize slipped on the dugout steps between innings and sprained his right ankle. X-rays came back negative, and he returned five days later against Tampa Bay, though his velocity was noticeably down and he lasted just five innings in a loss.

For the season as a whole, Mize still owns respectable numbers: a 5-8 record, 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 96 strikeouts and 27 walks across 109.2 innings between his time in Detroit and San Diego. Those marks place him above league average in ERA, WHIP and walk rate, even after the bumpy transition. Bettors weighing today’s matchup can find current lines and props on the game through Bettors Insider’s DraftKings promo code page, with San Diego installed as a modest road favorite.

What’s Next for Mize and the Padres

Wednesday’s start against Cincinnati gives Mize a chance to steady himself before San Diego’s postseason push intensifies. The Padres enter the day at 73-66, still very much alive in a crowded National League field, while the Reds sit well back at 66-73 and well outside contention. San Diego was installed as a moneyline favorite for the matinee matchup at Great American Ball Park, with the total set at 9.5 runs.

Manager Craig Stammen has stuck with Mize in the rotation through the turbulence, banking on the pitcher who carried a career-best ERA into the summer to reappear as September unfolds. The Padres’ front office parted with a premium prospect package to acquire him specifically because of that upside, and every start now doubles as evidence for or against that bet.

How Mize performs over these final weeks could shape both San Diego’s playoff positioning and his own leverage heading into free agency. A return to the form that earned him an All-Star nod in Detroit would go a long way toward answering the questions that have followed him since the trade — and toward proving that his 2026 breakout was no fluke, regardless of which uniform he’s wearing when the season ends.