Analysts Assess Italy’s Two-Horse Race as Flutter Eyes Lottomatica’s Top Spot
Jefferies data shows Flutter's Sisal and SNAI brands closing in on Lottomatica's lead in Italy's booming online gambling market, with SNAI's platform migration seen as the key swing factor.
Italy’s online gambling market is shaping up into a two-horse race, and analysts think Flutter Entertainment could be closing in on market leader Lottomatica. A new report from investment bank Jefferies puts Lottomatica at 30% of Italian online gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first quarter, with Flutter’s combined Sisal and SNAI brands right behind at 27%.
That narrow gap has turned attention to SNAI, the retail-heavy sportsbook Flutter acquired as part of its Playtech deal, as the potential tipping point in the battle for Italy’s top spot.
Why SNAI Could Be the Difference-Maker
Flutter already has a proven blueprint in Italy. Since buying Sisal in August 2022, the operator has grown that brand’s online GGR share from roughly 10% to 13%, picking up close to three percentage points across both online sports betting and iGaming. SNAI, meanwhile, has gone the other direction — Jefferies estimates it has shed about four percentage points of online share in recent years.
If Flutter can simply claw back that lost ground with SNAI, the combined group could leapfrog Lottomatica. “Flutter boasts a track record of gaining the leading market share in almost every targeted territory,” Jefferies noted, adding that Italy’s market-share shifts will be a key storyline in the coming quarters.
The prize is significant. Jefferies pegs Italy’s 2025 gambling GGR at €22.6 billion, making it Europe’s largest market, yet online penetration sits at just 28% compared to 61% in the UK. The firm projects Italian online GGR growing at a 9% compound annual rate between 2025 and 2030. Italy’s strict advertising rules and a newly trimmed concession regime — which cut the number of online licenses from 81 down to 52 — also tend to favor large, established omnichannel operators with retail footprints, which plays directly into Flutter’s hand.
Early Signs of a Turnaround
Flutter’s Q2 earnings call last week offered the first real evidence that its SNAI strategy might be working. CEO Peter Jackson said Italy delivered “exceptional levels of growth” across sportsbook and iGaming, outpacing the broader market, even after some short-term disruption from migrating SNAI onto Flutter’s platform in April — a shift Jackson described as causing a “brief period of share loss.”
The bounce-back looked strong. Jackson pointed to active monthly players increasing 30% in June and heavy parlay betting activity during the World Cup as customers responded to an expanded product lineup. Jefferies’ own data, which runs through June, still showed SNAI’s sports betting and iGaming shares declining with “no material sign” of a turnaround yet — though the bank flagged the completed platform migration as the likely catalyst going forward.
SNAI also gives Flutter something Sisal never could: serious retail scale. Jefferies estimates the SNAI acquisition lifted Flutter’s overall online GGR share from about 20% to 27%, while its retail sports betting share jumped from 12% to 32% — a meaningful edge in a market where physical presence still drives customer acquisition.
Lottomatica Isn’t Ceding Ground
Lottomatica, for its part, isn’t standing pat. CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi told analysts the Italian online market grew 12% in the second quarter, accelerating to 19% in June, with Lottomatica gaining share across sports betting, iGaming, and overall online play. “In a mix of organic growth and M&A, we’ve gone from a marginal operator to the largest operator in the market,” he said.
The company’s online revenue rose 24% in Q2 — 25% on a normalized basis — while online adjusted EBITDA margins hit 58% in the first half of the year. Lottomatica’s own migration, of its Planetwin365 brand, has also paid off, with sports betting share climbing above pre-migration levels and iGaming recovering roughly half of what it lost during the transition.
That track record shapes how Lottomatica is approaching the fight ahead. Executives repeatedly stressed they won’t chase market share at any cost. “The point is not only acquiring market share, but acquiring quality market share at a sustainable cost,” Angelozzi said, while CFO Laurence Van Lancker emphasized “profitable growth” and promotional discipline over aggressive spending.
What Comes Next
The battle lines are now fairly clear: Lottomatica is defending its lead while protecting industry-leading margins, and Flutter is betting that its global product and technology playbook can do for SNAI what it already did for Sisal. One strong month of player growth isn’t proof the long-term slide has reversed, but if it has, Jefferies’ numbers suggest Lottomatica could have a real fight on its hands. Flutter, in that scenario, wouldn’t even need a new formula for Italy — just a repeat of the one that’s already worked.
For US bettors tracking the broader sportsbook landscape, operators like FanDuel continue to expand their own market presence stateside, a similar dynamic of established brands jockeying for position that’s playing out across regulated betting markets worldwide.