Genius Sports Builds Prediction Market Foundation With Kalshi and Polymarket Official Data Deals

Genius Sports has locked in official data, integrity, and marketing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket, giving one supplier control over the settlement layer for the two largest prediction market operators in the country. The company signed with Polymarket on August 4 and with Kalshi a day later, and CEO Mark Locke detailed the strategy behind both deals on Genius Sports’ second-quarter earnings call.

The timing lines up with a broader push into prediction markets that Genius Sports has been building for months, layering data rights on top of the sports betting infrastructure it already supplies to leagues and operators worldwide.

What the Kalshi and Polymarket Deals Actually Cover

Under the agreement, Kalshi gains real-time official data across Genius Sports’ full soccer portfolio, including the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, the Argentine Primera División, and Ligue 1. Kalshi will use those verified feeds as its single source of truth for settling sports event contracts, participate in Genius Sports’ information-sharing processes, restrict certain market types, and take marketing services through the company’s Legend-owned media properties.

The Polymarket agreement covers the same settlement data and integrity services but adds exclusive U.S. livestreaming rights and league intellectual property for select competitions, including Serie A. That deal took effect immediately for eligible U.S. users, while the Kalshi release named no specific start date. Polymarket already holds partnerships tied to MLB, NHL, UFC, and additional soccer leagues including the German Bundesliga and La Liga, and its Liga MX tie-up has run on Genius Sports data since June.

“What we’ve established with Kalshi and Polymarket is a foundation upon which we will layer more content, more services, and more territories over time,” Locke said on the call. “It is the same compounding playbook that you have watched us execute in sports betting, now applied to prediction markets.”

NFL Still on the Sidelines

Not every league is moving at the same pace. The NFL has not partnered with any prediction market operator, and Brendon Plack, the league’s SVP of Public Policy and Government Affairs, submitted a comment letter to the CFTC in July arguing that its prediction market rule proposal falls short of the standards needed to protect consumers and prevent manipulation. Genius Sports holds exclusive NFL data rights through the 2029 season after winning the rights in a 2021 bidding process and renewing the deal last year.

Locke said he does not expect the NFL to approve prediction markets this season, though he noted the financial upside if the league eventually reversed course. He characterized the NFL’s letter as validation that the category needs the kind of official data infrastructure Genius Sports has already built for other leagues.

Q2 Numbers Show the Category Is Already Paying Off

Genius Sports reported second-quarter revenue of $195.5 million, up 65% year-over-year and above its own $185 million guidance. Adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to roughly $52.6 million, beating a $45 million target and producing a 26.9% margin. The Media Technology, Content and Services division jumped 193% to $78.2 million, while Betting Technology, Content and Services revenue climbed 28% to $117.4 million. The company posted a net loss of about $76.7 million for the quarter, driven largely by transaction costs tied to its $1.2 billion Legend acquisition.

Notably, Genius Sports says it already generated meaningful prediction market revenue in Q2 — before either the Kalshi or Polymarket agreements were even signed. CFO Bryan Castellani forecast that contribution will keep climbing as the category matures, and Locke pointed to three separate revenue channels: data and integrity services, direct sales to market makers, and audience cross-sell from Legend’s review and comparison properties, the sites bettors land on when searching for a sportsbook. On the strength of the quarter, Genius Sports raised its full-year guidance to a revenue range of $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $285 million to $295 million.

Where This Leaves the Prediction Market Race

By sitting underneath both Kalshi and Polymarket’s settlement layers, Genius Sports has positioned itself as infrastructure rather than a competitor in the prediction markets space — a similar role to the one it has long played in traditional sports betting. As more platforms enter the category and bettors weigh options through sites like prediction market apps, data ownership and integrity partnerships are shaping up as the real battleground, especially while holdout leagues like the NFL and NBA continue to watch from the outside.

For bettors exploring the space, resources such as a Kalshi vs. Polymarket comparison can help clarify how the two platforms differ before signing up, particularly as both expand their sports data partnerships with suppliers like Genius Sports.