Polymarket Geoblocks Ireland After Gambling Watchdog’s Court Threat

Polymarket has become the second major prediction market to geoblock its services in Ireland, following escalating pressure from the country’s gambling watchdog. The platform now lists Ireland as a restricted territory alongside more than 30 other countries, cutting off Irish users from creating new accounts or opening new positions on its event-outcome contracts.

The move comes after the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) threatened High Court action against prediction markets operating in the country without a license. GRAI chief executive Anne Marie Caulfield said the regulator had already made close to 30 interventions against unlicensed betting operators, with the “vast majority” resulting in sites voluntarily withdrawing from the Irish market — in some cases within 35 minutes of being contacted. Speaking on RTÉ’s This Week radio programme, Caulfield confirmed one of the largest prediction markets had already geoblocked Ireland on foot of the authority’s intervention, with a second “in the process of doing so.”

Why Ireland Is Cracking Down

Under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024, any activity that functions as betting requires a GRAI license, and the regulator has made clear it views platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as gambling products rather than financial exchanges — despite those companies’ efforts to brand themselves as trading venues for real-world event contracts. As of July 1, 2026, any remote betting service operator must hold a GRAI license to legally offer wagering products to Irish consumers, and no prediction market platform has publicly applied for one.

A GRAI spokesperson confirmed the agency has multiple live investigations open into black-market gambling operators, “with a view to potential prosecutions in due course.” Following the intervention, Polymarket voluntarily restricted access for Irish users: controls now prevent the creation of new accounts from Ireland, and any accounts already identified as Irish-based are blocked from depositing funds or opening new positions. Caulfield said that if an operator declines to comply, “it’s open to us to go to the High Court,” where the GRAI can seek a blocking order covering both site access and the payment rails that fund it.

A Pattern Playing Out Across Europe

Ireland’s crackdown mirrors a broader European regulatory push against prediction markets. Polymarket has already been blacklisted in Italy and the Czech Republic, while France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, ordered a fresh block after users found workarounds to an earlier geoblock. Spain briefly blocked both Polymarket and Kalshi in April, and Germany’s regulator has opened its own investigation into a rival prediction platform holding a Gibraltar gambling license.

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange that has fought U.S. legal battles to keep its event contracts classified as financial instruments rather than gambling products, already barred Irish users under its own membership agreement, which lists more than 55 restricted countries. That makes Polymarket’s exit the more consequential development for a market that had built real momentum in Ireland. In June’s Dublin Central by-election, roughly €4 million ($4.6 million) was wagered on Polymarket across the race’s prospective candidates — some of whom never actually appeared on the ballot — underscoring how quickly Irish bettors had adopted the platform even without formal licensing in place.

The GRAI has authority to seek High Court orders blocking both site access and associated payment flows, though it lacks the power to directly compel internet service providers to enforce those blocks — leaving legal escalation as its primary tool against operators that resist. Tánaiste Simon Harris has separately raised concerns that prediction markets could be exploited to facilitate money laundering, adding political weight to the regulator’s campaign. For bettors weighing where prediction markets stand relative to traditional wagering, resources like prediction markets legal guides lay out how the regulatory picture varies sharply from one country to the next.

What Comes Next

Neither Polymarket nor Kalshi has a physical presence in Ireland, and neither has signaled intent to seek a GRAI license, leaving the regulator to rely on geoblocking compliance rather than direct enforcement against foreign-domiciled operators. Polymarket is incorporated in the United States and registered in the Seychelles, while Kalshi operates as a U.S. entity regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — a jurisdictional gap that has made it difficult for European regulators to pursue these platforms through conventional means.

Still, the GRAI’s willingness to escalate toward the High Court signals that Ireland intends to treat prediction markets no differently than any other unlicensed sportsbook. With Polymarket and Kalshi both facing scrutiny in the U.S. over allegations of insider trading tied to military and geopolitical events, and with the two platforms reportedly taking in a combined €5 billion in wagers around the last World Cup final, the stakes for how regulators ultimately classify these products are only getting bigger — in Ireland and well beyond it.