Tribal Gaming Groups and Prediction Market Supporters Are Flooding the 2026 Midterms With Cash

The battle over prediction markets in the United States has moved well beyond regulatory agencies and courtrooms. Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, it is playing out at the campaign finance level, and the stakes could not be higher for tribal gaming communities across the country.

Tribal Leaders Sound the Alarm at Annual Convention

At the Indian Gaming Association’s annual convention in San Diego in early April, two words dominated both the public sessions and the private meetings: prediction markets. Tribal leaders from across the country gathered to discuss the explosive growth of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and the direct threat they pose to tribes’ carefully negotiated place in the American gambling industry.

IGA Chairman David Bean did not mince words at a news conference during the event. “This is no innovation,” Bean said. “This is unlawful gambling dressed up as finance.” The association formally called on Congress to clamp down on prediction market platforms and announced the creation of a defense fund to support legal challenges against them. The fund has reached $2 million, though IGA officials acknowledged that what they are up against dwarfs that figure considerably.

A Political Machine With Hundreds of Millions to Spend

According to Victor Rocha, conference chair of the IGA who hosted a webinar on the topic at the end of April 2026, the prediction market and cryptocurrency-backed side of this fight is preparing to deploy between $250 million and $500 million in the current election cycle. Super PACs like Fairshake PAC and Win for America PAC are channeling significant capital into key races, with the goal of shaping the regulatory environment around prediction markets and cryptocurrency policy.

The scope of the spending on the prediction market side is already visible in concrete terms. DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and bet365 collectively contributed $48 million to Win for America, according to a report by Axios. That super PAC is actively deploying funds into state primary campaigns and lobbying efforts across multiple states, targeting both legalization efforts in states that do not yet have sports betting and efforts to counter tax increases in states where the industry is already operating. A reported $30 million is being directed specifically at the Minnesota primary.

The IGA’s Cook summed up the challenge plainly at the April webinar: “At the same time we’re reading that the opposition is spending $200 million in this cycle and we only have five months left.” IGA Chairman Bean described the situation as facing “a giant that has millions of dollars to spend,” but said tribal communities will “exhaust every effort and resource to combat this.”

Tribal Political Giving and the Schiff Connection

Tribal gaming groups are not passive in the political arena. The Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria in the Bay Area and the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians each contributed $100,000 to a pro-Schiff PAC, according to reporting by CasinoBeats. Those contributions are directly connected to the prediction markets fight: Sen. Adam Schiff co-sponsored the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act, legislation that would explicitly classify sports event contracts as gambling products subject to state gambling laws.

The political history between California’s tribal gaming groups and efforts to expand gambling in the state runs deep. Those same two tribes, along with others, contributed more than $40 million to the campaign opposing Proposition 26, a California ballot measure that would have legalized sports betting in the state. Their motivation is straightforward: tribes have spent decades and enormous sums of money negotiating exclusive gaming compacts with state governments, and they view prediction market platforms as operators that are getting a free ride by avoiding that entire regulatory and financial framework.

Four Tribes in Federal Court

Beyond the political spending, four tribal nations have filed federal lawsuits against Kalshi and Robinhood promo code, alleging violations of federal law and state-tribal compacts. The Ho-Chunk Nation of Wisconsin, one of 11 federally recognized tribes with exclusive gaming rights under a compact with the state, is among the plaintiffs. Ho-Chunk President Jon Greendeer described it as a David and Goliath fight with his tribe’s social safety net hanging in the balance. Prediction market platforms have responded in court filings that they operate financial markets, not gambling establishments, and are not conducting business on tribal lands.

Former National Indian Gaming Commission Chairman Jonodev Chaudhuri, speaking about the mood at the San Diego convention, described it as one of collective worry. He noted that prediction markets are unique in how they have expanded so rapidly with minimal oversight, contrasting sharply with the regulatory burden tribes operate under every day.

Casino Lobby Spending Hits Records, But Faces a Bigger War Chest

Total lobbying spending by casino and gambling-affiliated groups reached nearly $50 million last year, a record high by that industry, according to CasinoBeats. Kalshi alone spent more than $1 million on lobbying in the same period. Only the American Gaming Association and the Gila River Indian Community outspent Kalshi. Kalshi’s largest single expenditure was $430,000 to Miller Strategies LLC for issues related to a rule proposal before the CFTC, a firm that works closely with Donald Trump Jr., who serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket.

The formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, whose members include Kalshi, Coinbase, and Robinhood, is expected to further increase coordinated spending on behalf of the industry. Experts have noted that this coalition gives prediction market operators a vehicle to compete with the established casino lobby at the federal level in a way they previously could not.

For tribal communities, the concern extends beyond revenue competition. Tribal gambling enterprises generate more than $40 billion a year nationally, revenue that funds healthcare, housing, education, and other essential services on reservations. Whether the lobbying fight and the November midterms produce legislative action remains an open question, particularly given that the current Trump administration has publicly expressed support for prediction market legality, a dynamic that complicates any path to congressional intervention. The IGA has nonetheless made clear it has no intention of standing down, calling on its member communities to treat the 2026 election cycle as one of the most consequential in the history of the Indian gaming industry. For those who want to understand prediction markets vs. sports betting at the policy level, this fight is the clearest illustration yet of just how different these two worlds are being treated by regulators and legislators.