Election polls have been a staple of the race to the Oval Office for years now, but the 2024 presidential ballot saw a different, more positive twist. In the run up to the November 5 elections between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, interest in election betting odds soared on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to credible reports, election watchers and bettors wagered over $3.65 billion in a quest to predict the next POTUS. With a system so new and so lucrative, it’s no surprise that DraftKings, one of America’s leading gambling platforms is considering establishing itself in election prediction markets.
The company made this known through its chief executive Jason Robins at DraftKings’ third-quarter earnings call where Robins mulled over the prospects of presidential election betting.
“I do think there could be a place for [prediction markets] outside of elections, but that’s really where the interest seems to be now from the customer demand side. It’s definitely something we’re looking at in advance of the next presidential election and potentially there will be an opportunity to look at something sooner,” Robins told investors.
This announcement came barely a week after US citizens voted to return Donald Trump to the White House in what has been dubbed a historic comeback. DraftKings' management is optimistic about the financial prospects of non-sports betting ventures, especially since political betting attracts media coverage.
Further into his remarks at the quarterly earning call, Jason Robins admitted the regulatory challenges of launching into the elections betting market. Despite finding the venture interesting, the leadership at DraftKings is certain that they are bound to face a different, perhaps more tighter regulatory environment compared to sports betting.
However, from the look of things, it doesn’t appear that the sportsbook giant is certain of where political betting activities will fit in amidst its entire lineup of business operations. Nonetheless, the company is considering making its first plunge in the 2028 elections, with about four years of groundwork expected before then.
“It’s not licensed as a betting product. It’s licensed as a financial market. It’s a very different thing,” Robins remarked. “So, we’ll have to see where it fits in, but we’ll plan on looking at it ahead of the next election, that’s for sure.”
Besides the buzz of the recent election, the pivot towards political betting is also coming on the back of a 6% drop in stock price on Thursday, November 7. DraftKings also readjusted its earning projection, predicting a rather modest $240 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
Much of the betting action during the 2024 presidential elections came from non-US residents on Polymarket, and the vast majority of them threw their weights—and money—behind Donald Trump. The Florida billionaire closed the first polls with 61% odds of emerging victorious. On the other hand, Vice President Harris’ odds were set at 39%.
By a 2022 settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket was restricted from accepting wagers from people in the US. Regardless, it saw a record-breaking $3.2 billion worth of bets placed, edging out competitor platform Kalshi which had just $450 million. 48% of bettors on Kalshi favored Harris while 58% predicted a Trump victory.
“Traders didn’t buy the Harris hype and were very bullish on Trump in the Sun Belt. From their inception, our Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona markets all showed Trump to be the clear favorite despite talk of an upset. Despite weeks of accusations and speculations, our markets emerged victorious, and our haters are now our waiters at the banquet of success,” Kalshi Lead Market Editor Terry Oldreal wrote on the firm’s blog.
Pollsters had claimed the election would be super close. However, in the aftermath of the November 5 ballot, Trump secured 312 electoral votes to Harris’ 226 to emerge POTUS, much to the delight of bettors.