Big 12 Conference Championship Winner: Texas Tech Favored Again, But QB Chaos Opens the Door
Texas Tech opens as the Big 12 title favorite again, but a quarterback shakeup and roster turnover have BYU and Utah looming as live threats in this futures market breakdown.
Texas Tech enters the 2026 season as the rare defending Big 12 champion that also opens as a near-even-money favorite to do it all again, but a offseason shakeup at quarterback has left just enough daylight for BYU, Utah and a crowded second tier to make this futures market worth a real look.
Quick take:
- Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-105)
- Why: Reigning champs return the roster infrastructure and Joey McGuire’s program momentum even after a quarterback shakeup
- The number to watch: Texas Tech is priced shorter than -100 at some books despite an unresolved starting quarterback battle
The Red Raiders won the program’s first Big 12 title and made the College Football Playoff a season ago, and that pedigree still anchors the market. Bettors Insider’s DraftKings promo code page is worth a look for anyone opening a futures position on this market, since Big 12 title odds shift fast once fall camp battles resolve.
Why Texas Tech Is Still the Number
Texas Tech is sitting at -105 to -121 depending on the book, and Polymarket’s betting market has the Red Raiders at a flat 50% to repeat as Big 12 champions — no other team clears 15%. That’s a remarkable price for a team that lost its presumptive starting quarterback before the season even started. Texas Tech paid a reported $5 million to bring in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby, one of the most expensive transfer portal deals on record, only for Sorsby to be ruled out as the 2026 starter. Incumbent Behren Morton and redshirt freshman Will Hammond are now the leading options under center, a notable step down in name value from what Tech thought it was buying.
The defense also took a significant hit. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, edge rusher David Bailey and defensive tackle Lee Hunter — three of the best players on last year’s championship defense — are all gone to the NFL, and head coach Joey McGuire’s staff had to rebuild much of that unit through the portal again this cycle, though this time “without a fully opened checkbook,” per reporting on the offseason’s rule changes limiting spending sprees.
Top Contenders
| Team | Odds | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | -105 | Defending champ, but QB battle still unresolved |
| BYU | +550 to +750 | Returns Bear Bachmeier and Big 12 OPOY LJ Martin |
| Utah | +650 to +850 | Deepest roster outside Tech, brutal late-season slate |
| Kansas State | +1300 to +1500 | Projected 7.4 wins, solid but unspectacular |
| Houston | +1600 to +1800 | Projected 7.3 wins in a crowded middle tier |
BYU’s Case as the Live Second Choice
BYU is the sharpest alternative on the board. The Cougars return quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who took over as a true freshman transfer from Stanford in 2025 and now has a full offseason to grow into the job, plus running back LJ Martin, last season’s Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. The offensive line returns largely intact, and ESPN’s preseason model has BYU as the only team within a touchdown of Texas Tech in projected strength, with five teams bunched not far behind.
BYU’s linebacker corps of Isaiah Glasker, Siale Esera and Cal transfer Cade Uluave is being talked about as one of the best in the country.
That’s a real edge for a program that also returns a veteran defensive line and a deep secondary led by cornerback Evan Johnson. The one variable to monitor is continuity at defensive coordinator — Jay Hill left for Michigan, and Kelly Poppinga steps into that role for the first time. Utah, meanwhile, projects for 8.6 average wins in Yahoo’s model, essentially even with its Big 12 title price, but a brutal closing stretch that includes road trips to Arizona and TCU in the same November could be the difference between a conference title push and a strong-but-empty regular season.
Kansas State, Houston, TCU, Arizona and Arizona State round out the next tier, none of them clearing single-digit percentages on Polymarket. It’s a top-heavy market.
The Best Bet
Texas Tech’s roster and coaching continuity still make it the right anchor, but the number is thin enough that the smarter structure is pairing the favorite with a live alternative rather than betting Tech outright.
- Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-105)
- Value alternative: BYU Cougars (+550 to +750)
If the Tech quarterback competition drags into September without a clear answer, BYU’s return of Bachmeier, Martin and that linebacker trio makes it the best-priced ticket to actually beat the favorite for the crown.