In Week 8, Tennessee heads into a crucial SEC matchup against Alabama. Both of these powerhouse programs are currently sitting at 5-1.
Tennessee is hosting, which gives them a slight edge given their strong home record and, of course, we can’t forget, last year’s victory in Knoxville that ended a 15-year losing streak against the Tide.
However, this year looks different.
As it stands, Alabama enters as a 3-point favorite. With an over/under set at 57.5 points, it’s looking like there will be some offensive fireworks.
Betting models project this to be a fairly tight game, but Alabama's more explosive offense gives them the advantage in a matchup that might come down to the final moments on the clock.
Alabama's defense has been inconsistent, but their ability to limit big plays has kept them competitive in tough games, though, some of these games you might argue should not have been as tough.
They rank 6th nationally in forcing three-and-outs (43.0%) and have allowed only 4.3% of opposing plays to go for 20+ yards.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama’s stud quarterback, will be a big factor.
If Tennessee’s defense — ranked first in stuff rate (32.3%) — can make Alabama a one-dimensional offense, they might disrupt Milroe’s rhythm. But the Vols’ secondary has shown a bit of vulnerability, which could be costly against Milroe and Alabama’s big-play potential. Don’t let the Tide figure out what’s working because they’ll go to work.
Tennessee's defense has been stellar. They’re ranking 4th nationally in points allowed (10.7 ppg) and 2nd in yards allowed (249.8) which goes to show how dominant they’ve been through the season.
However, they'll be missing linebacker Keenan Pili, their defensive play-caller. This kid is the center of the defense. This loss will no matter what be a significant factor, especially against an Alabama team that thrives on taking advantage of defensive breakdowns.
The Vols will need Joshua Josephs, Tyre West, and rising star James Pearce Jr. to keep Milroe under pressure and prevent Alabama from finding a rhythm. Once ‘Bama finds their stride, they’ll be off to the races to make the Vols 5-2.
Offensively, Tennessee’s QB, Nico Iamaleava, has struggled in some of the more crucial moments this season.
His stats when facing pressure (4.7 YPA, 3 turnover-worthy plays) underscore that Alabama’s defensive front, which undoubtedly excels in creating pressure, could feast on his inexperience. Unless Iamaleava can elevate his game, Tennessee might not be able to keep pace.
This game feels like a classic SEC slugfest. While both teams have had ups and downs this season, Alabama's defense looks better suited to capitalize on Tennessee’s mistakes — if they go back to being the Alabama everyone is familiar with.
The Vols' strong run game, spearheaded by Dylan Sampson, might keep them competitive throughout most of the game, but unless Iamaleava finds some late-game heroics, it’s hard to see them pulling off the upset.
BettorsInsider’s Pick: Alabama to cover (-3).
Their ability to create pressure and force Tennessee into passing situations makes the Tide the safer bet in this road showdown.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Tennessee 24
Expect a game that stays mostly close throughout, but Alabama's edge on both sides of the ball will be the difference. This game might just come down to a game-winning FG.