We’re set for an excellent night of Friday college football with two ranked teams on the schedule. First, we have #2 Oregon taking on Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium. Following that game, we have Oklahoma State at #13 BYU, with a bonus game of Florida State at Duke. With such stellar lineup we’ll breakdown the gamed, and our favorite betting line for all the games.
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Now, we’ll be upfront about this: we don’t expect this game to be close. Following a narrow win last week against Ohio State, Oregon has cemented itself as one of the top programs in the nation. Remaining undefeated up until this point, it’s hard to see the 1-5 Boilermakers threatening that record. Not saying they can’t; this is the first time Oregon is going to Purdue since joining the Big 10, and if there is anything Big 10 fans know, you can’t sleep on Purdue. The moment you get complacent, that’s the moment they take you out and ruin your spotless season. That being said, this game will probably be one-sided as long as Oregon comes in ready.
Oregon is currently favored as a 27.5-point favorite. That is one of the highest spreads we’ve seen for Oregon all year. However, that still might be a little low, considering Oregon's offensive talent. Dillion Gabriel has made himself at home on this roster and looks more comfortable every week. His connection with Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, and Terrance Ferguson has only grown as this offensive strengthens. Even the offensive line has come into form, starting a bit shaky, and they are now getting pushed and opening holes routinely. Jordan James (RB) is a big beneficiary of their improvements. Overall, this Oregon team has the talent to compete for a title this year.
On the other hand, this season has not been kind to Purdue. Even though they have been razor close to stealing multiple wins this year, they just haven’t been able to get over the hump. Coming into this one as a 1-5 team, they aren’t nearly as bad as their record would suggest. Taking #22 Illinois to OT and only losing by 1 point, the Boilermakers can hang. They’ll be coming into this matchup against Oregon with their freshman QB Ryan Browne following a slow start from the Senior Hudson Card. In his first game, taking most of the snaps against Illinois, he passed for just under 300 yards and 3 TDs. The 6’4 freshman from Michigan might be the answer for an ailing team. However, that may only help one side of the ball, as the defense has been a big issue this year. The lowest they have held an opponent to is 28, allowing their opponent to score over 50 points in most of their games. If the offense can hang in with Oregon, this could turn into a rock fight, but it will be a high-scoring affair either way!
With the line set at 27.5, we still think Oregon will cover the spread. Even though that is a 4 TD margin of victory, the only way Oregon doesn’t hit that is if they take their foot off the gas. There is potential for some late-game scoring from Purdue to kill the spread, so that’s why this line isn’t a lock. However, a line we do consider a lock is the points total. At 60.5 points for the total, we could see Oregon hit that themselves. If Purdue manages a touch or two, this game will go over the 60.5 total easy.
This game could be a lot closer. BYU has been cooking this season with an undefeated record; they’re coming into this matchup with all the momentum. This offense has been great, but the defense has been the calling card of the team’s success. They have been staggering this year, especially at home. With Oklahoma State on the road in Utah this Friday, they’ll have an uphill battle to knock off the Cougars. Jake Retzkaff, the QB of BYU, has been a mixed bag this year. Lacking consistency in several games, the guy can air the ball out when needed. Darius Lassiter has been his main workhorse, consistently earning most targets. However, this receiving core, in general, is remarkably balanced. BYU tends to lean on multiple heads to keep the ball moving. A part of their game lacking this year has been the run game. BYU has been using a committee of backs to move the ball on the ground with mixed results. Regardless, BYU has been a force, and Oklahoma will have to bring their A-game to add that first L in the loss column for the Cougars.
Oklahoma State is coming into this game split at 3-3 so far, with some notable losses against strong opponents like Utah and Kansas State. They are currently on a three-game losing streak and would love to end it this week. Scoring has been an issue for this roster when playing against stronger competition, with the team being held to 20 points or less in their last three games. Turnovers have been a huge problem lately, with starting quarterback Alan Bowman throwing six interceptions in the previous three games alone. Now lining up against one of the most resilient defenses in the country, Oklahoma State will have to button up their offense to have a chance in this one.
With the line set at 9.5 in favor of BYU, we could see BYU cover the spread easily. The most recent games show that BYU has been hitting their stride while Oklahoma St. is struggling. We don’t have a ton of confidence in this group. Even though they were able to beat BYU last year, it took double OT to settle that contest. Unless Oklahoma St. turns it up and find their legs on offense again, the spread for BYU is a lock for us.