The Red River Rivalry is back! This year’s matchup between No. 1 Texas and No. 19 Oklahoma has all the makings of a classic and that has us excited about the odds, bets, and of course our prediction.
Texas is ranked No. 1 for the first time since 1984, and they enter as heavy favorites after a strong 5-0 start. Oklahoma has shown glimpses of promise but faces a tough test against one of the best teams in the country.
We’re going to break down the odds, key matchups, and why one side is the clear betting value.
Date: Saturday, October 12, 2024
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
Venue: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
Broadcast: ABC and WatchESPN
The Longhorns are sitting as 14-point favorites with odds of -110, while the Sooners are +14 (-110).
The over/under is 49 points, suggesting the sportsbooks expect a more defensive battle compared to the typical high-scoring Big 12 games. That’s not to say these teams don’t have dominant offenses.
Texas is also a heavy favorite on the moneyline at -700, with Oklahoma listed at +500 for those feeling an upset brewing.
The spread is pretty big, especially in a rivalry game where emotions run high and strange things can and do happen.
Before we get into our prediction for the game, we really have to take a look at what we’re working with.
Texas enters this game with one of the most well-rounded rosters in the country. It’s easy to see why they’re #1.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers has returned to the starting lineup after missing a few games with a muscle strain, and his backup Arch Manning has proven more than capable when needed.
Ewers will likely get the start if healthy, and he’s a proven performer, having torched Oklahoma for four touchdowns in a 49-0 rout last season. This year, Texas has really gone the distance with their long drives, consistently averaging over nine plays per drive in their first half against Michigan, and converting red zone trips into touchdowns. They’ve got a recipe to win and it’s working.
Oklahoma’s defense is going to need to disrupt that rhythm if they want any chance of staying in the game. Their ability to create havoc plays, led by R Mason Thomas with 6.5 tackles for loss, has been a massive factor in their success. The Sooners have managed to keep themselves competitive by forcing offenses into mistakes, but stopping Texas from long, clock-chewing drives will be a huge challenge.
Oklahoma’s offense has struggled all season. They currently rank 122nd nationally in total offense, and it’s been a rollercoaster at quarterback.
Freshman Michael Hawkins has been thrust into action after taking over for the benched Jackson Arnold. While Hawkins’ mobility has added a new dimension to the offense which has been fun to watch, the Sooners have yet to find consistency. A big factor in that is their depleted wide receiver corps. Hawkins managed to grind out a win against Auburn, but the competition steps up significantly here.
Against Texas, Oklahoma will need to find some kind of spark to keep up.
If Hawkins can take advantage of a few defensive gaps, the Sooners might be able to hang around for a while. But that’s a tall order against a Texas defense that’s allowed just 14.8 points per game and has thrived at shutting down opposing offenses early and often.
Will the Sooners have enough to stifle the Longhorn offense? We’ll see, but it’s not looking good.
The Cotton Bowl in Dallas always brings a different energy to this rivalry.
Records often don’t matter as much, and underdogs tend to punch above their weight. Historically, Oklahoma has won 17 of the last 25 matchups since 2000, but Texas holds a 63-51-5 overall edge.
Last year, Oklahoma pulled off a stunning 34-30 upset over a No. 3-ranked Texas team, led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. That history alone makes this game hard to predict, but Texas is the better team across the board this year.
No matter who wins this massive matchup between the storied Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns, we’re sure it’s going to be a game we’ll talk about for years.
While Oklahoma has a history of shocking Texas, we think this year’s Longhorns team is simply too talented and balanced on both sides of the ball to let that happen again.
Quinn Ewers is back and ready to pick apart a shaky Oklahoma defense that hasn’t faced a team of Texas caliber yet. Even if he’s not 100%, Manning is waiting on the bench to jump in right away. Even if the Sooners manage to create some chaos early, their inconsistent offense won’t be able to score enough to keep pace.
Taking Texas to cover the -14 spread is our pick here.
Their ability to control the game, chew up the clock with long drives, and convert red-zone opportunities should be the difference in this one.
Oklahoma has shown they can be scrappy, but two touchdowns feel like a safe cushion for a Texas team with national title aspirations.
Final Score Prediction: Texas 34, Oklahoma 17
Best Bet: Texas -14