The Final Four is set, betting odds are live for both games, and the odds-on-favorite looks like a heavyweight Purdue vs UConn matchup in the Championship game.
We will jump into some key betting trends and early leans later in this article, but let's start by looking at the current odds for both Final Four games.
The Boilermakers remain one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country, however, NC State's greatest strength has been dictating pace and defending the perimeter throughout the tournament.
While there are intriguing matchups on the perimeter, all eyes will be on the paint, where the combination of DJ Burns and Mohamed Diarra will not only look to slow down Zach Edey but will need to do so without getting into early foul trouble.
Purdue opened as a 9-point favorite against NC State, with a total hovering right around 146 points.
UConn has yet to be tested in the NCAA Tournament, and the opening odds for this Final Four matchup reflect just that. The Huskies reach the Final Four with an average winning margin of just under 28 PPG. They have yet to allow over 58 points in a tournament game.
The Crimson Tide play an uptempo high-scoring brand of basketball, but it's been the improved play (and increased effort) on the defense end that has been the story throughout March.
UConn opened as a 12-point favorite over Alabama, with a total of 160.
It's never too early to bet a number you like, and we have a lean on the total for both of these matchups. Given both totals have already moved this week, these are two bets we would get in early this week.
We are getting to the point in tournament where it isn't worth pointing out how hot these teams are, but we will anyways. Purdue has won 10 of 11, covering the spread in 4 of its last 5 games. The Wolfpack have won 9-straight while covering the spread in 7-straight.
While both of these defenses have been elite over that stretch, it is important to note that both teams played to the over this season. In fact, the two teams are a combined 45-30-2 to the over on the year.
We know Edey is going to get his, but where I think this game gets interesting is on the perimeter. Can Purdue's guards slow down DJ Horne and Casey Morsell? We think the Wolfpack will have enough of an edge here to want to push tempo a bit and make this more of a higher-scoring game.
Give us over 145.5 as our early lean in the opening Final Four game.
They say styles make fights and we have two wildly contrasting styles in this matchup between Alabama and UConn.
The Huskies are one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 315th in pace of play. Combine this with a #1 ranking in offensive efficiency and #4 ranking in defensive efficiency, and it's easy to see how UConn has been a nightmare matchup for tournament teams.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide constantly push the tempo and ranks 9th in pace of play, #3 in offensive efficiency, but just 104th in defensive efficiency.
What stands out to us is the total. UConn has allowed an opponent to score 70+ points just once in their last 22 games. They've held opponents to 60 or less in 11 of those games.
This total may be 10 points too high, making our early lean to the under.