NCAAB: New college hoops handicapper likes two Saturday day games
Ohio @ Ball State (-10.5), Noon
The first game I am looking at on this loaded Saturday may not be on the radar for many. The Ohio Bobcats will travel to Ball State for each team’s third game of conference play in the MAC. Let’s begin by breaking down the road team first. Ohio comes into this game after getting thumped by 19 at Bowling Green on Tuesday. The Bobcats clearly struggle on the road and this is evident when we delve into some of the deeper metrics. Ohio currently possesses the number one differential in points per game from home to road games in all of college basketball. They average a monstrous 21.8 points per game less on the road than they do at home. This comes while ranking inside the top 15 in the “Luck” metric on Kenpom. This should correlate to a negative regression in their current play which already isn’t great.
Ball State comes into this game off of a brutal 2OT home loss to Eastern Michigan. This was a game the Cardinals were expected to win and should have. They will be looking to avenge this poor performance with a big rebound game. Ball State, while relatively unknown to the casual fan, currently possesses one of the more lethal offenses in college basketball, grading out 37th in Kenpom’s Offensive Efficiency statistic. They are averaging an impressive 92.8 points per game on their home court. The Cardinals also currently rank in the top 100 in strength of schedule, which is respectable for a team in the MAC conference.
I was on Bowling Green to cover against Ohio earlier in the week and they blew the five point spread out of the water. I’m doubling down here with a hungry Ball State team to cover the 10.5 points.
Pick: Ball State -10.5
Georgia @ AUBURN (-12.5), 4 pm
The Georgia Bulldogs enter this game off a fresh home victory against Vanderbilt earlier this week. This is a game in which I was backing them at a tight spread of -1.5. They won in dominant fashion, pulling away in the second half and eventually winning by 19 points. This win was preceded by a demoralizing loss at Tennessee, who currently looks like one of the best teams in all of college basketball. As mentioned in my previous pick, the differential in home and road points per game is a statistic I love to target. Georgia, like Ohio has an incredibly drastic drop off from home to road when it comes to scoring. Currently ranking third in the country in this differential, the Bulldogs average 20.6 less points per game on the road. A statistic that further shows their road struggles is their turnovers. Georgia is turning the ball over at an alarming rate, as they fall in the bottom fifty in the entire country in turnovers per game. This only gets worse on the road where they average an excruciating 16.7 turnovers per game.
As for Auburn, they enter this game on a bit of a sour note. The Tigers traveled to Mississippi on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite and struggled to find their footing as they fell to the Rebels by 15. Auburn, like Georgia, performs significantly better at home and will look to bounce back. They average 89.3 points per game at home and just flat out play like a different team. Led by Bryce Brown and Chuma Okeke the Tigers defense turns into offense which swings momentum quickly. We discussed Georgia’s high rate of turnovers on the road. Well, which team causes the most turnovers at home in all of college basketball? That’s right, Auburn. This season opponents playing at Auburn have turned the ball over an average of 23.4 times per game! That astounding number could spell absolute disaster for the Georgia Bulldogs.
Auburn was disappointing last time out and should be ready to rebound back in Auburn Arena. I think this game snowballs based on the turnovers and the Georgia Bulldogs fail to recover. Auburn responds with a dominant win and covers the 12.5 point spread.
Pick: Auburn -12.5.