Warriors vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds & Best Bet — NBA Summer League Championship

Golden State and Memphis clash again in Las Vegas, this time with the Summer League title on the line. Here's our prediction, odds breakdown, and best bet for the championship game.

Earnest Horn July 19, 2026

Golden State already knows what it’s like to lose to Memphis in Las Vegas this month — now they get a championship shot at revenge.

Quick take:
Pick: Grizzlies on the moneyline
Why: Memphis has the deeper NBA-caliber roster and already handled the Warriors once this summer
The number to watch: Memphis shot 17-of-32 from three in the first meeting — if that continues, Golden State can’t keep up

The 2026 NBA Summer League wraps up Sunday night at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, where the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies meet for the championship at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams punched their tickets with semifinal wins Saturday — Golden State survived the Los Angeles Lakers 92-88 behind a balanced scoring night, while Memphis handled Houston 101-90 to reach the final. It’s a rematch of a group-stage blowout, with the stakes considerably higher this time.

Golden State enters as the No. 11 overall pick Yaxel Lendeborg’s coming-out party of a summer, while Memphis has been carried by its own lottery selection, Cameron Boozer, taken third overall in the 2026 draft. Remember that Summer League rosters lean heavily on draft picks, two-way signees, and fringe NBA hopefuls rather than full regular-season squads — this is a showcase, not a true measure of either franchise’s actual depth chart.

Both teams took different roads to get here. Golden State cruised through the first four days of group play, including a 104-79 statement win over Oklahoma City, before Memphis handed them their only real setback of the week. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, dropped an early game to Dallas but steadied themselves with wins over Chicago, Golden State, and Atlanta to lock up one of the top four seeds. Neither club is walking into Sunday cold — both have already played meaningful, playoff-style basketball in the semifinals just a day earlier.

Why the Odds Favor Memphis Again

Oddsmakers have installed the Grizzlies as favorites heading into the championship, and bettors weighing a DraftKings promo code for the final might want to think twice about backing the Warriors outright given how lopsided the last meeting was. When these two met on July 14, Memphis blitzed Golden State 106-85, riding a 29-13 third quarter and shooting a blistering 17-of-32 from three-point range while the Warriors managed just 10-of-32 from deep. Javon Small torched Golden State for 26 points, four rebounds, seven assists, and two blocks in that game, and he’s been part of a deeper, more NBA-ready rotation all week in Las Vegas.

The Numbers Side by Side

Bracket play through the semifinals, July 19
	Warriors	Grizzlies
Record entering final	4-1	4-1 (3-1 through bracket play, won semifinal)
Points/game (bracket play)	~94.3	~96.8
Leading scorer	Yaxel Lendeborg (~14-15 PPG)	Cameron Boozer (24 pts vs. Atlanta)
Head-to-head this summer	Lost 85-106 (July 14)	Won 106-85 (July 14)

Boozer and Small Give Memphis the Edge

Boozer has looked every bit the No. 3 pick since his debut, scoring 15 points in his first professional game against Oklahoma City and following that up with a 24-point, seven-rebound outing in a 96-64 win over Atlanta that punched Memphis’s spot in the playoff bracket. Cedric Coward and Olivier-Maxence Prosper have given the Grizzlies scoring depth beyond their headliner, while Small has repeatedly shown he can take over a game — his 26-point, seven-assist eruption against Golden State in the group stage is the exact blueprint Memphis needs to replicate Sunday.

Memphis shot 17-of-32 from three-point range the last time these two teams played — nearly triple Golden State’s output from beyond the arc in that same game.

Golden State isn’t without answers, though. Lendeborg has been the engine of the Warriors’ run to the final, and role players like Malevy Leons and Will Richard have chipped in double-digit scoring nights when the shots have fallen. Golden State’s group-stage form was actually strong — they entered play on July 13 unbeaten and outscoring opponents by 18 points per game — before the Memphis loss briefly slowed that momentum. The semifinal win over the Lakers, punctuated by a 29-point fourth quarter, shows this roster has another gear when it needs one.

Leons in particular has quietly been one of Golden State’s steadiest contributors all week, providing rebounding, playmaking, and timely scoring without needing to dominate the box score. He finished with 10 points, three rebounds, three assists, and two steals in the earlier loss to Memphis, and that kind of well-rounded production is exactly what the Warriors will need more of if they hope to slow down a Grizzlies team playing with obvious confidence. Lachlan Olbrich and Chance McMillian round out a bench group that has given Golden State scoring balance even on nights when Lendeborg is the primary defensive focus.

Prediction and Best Bet

Memphis has the more complete roster from top to bottom, and it’s already proven it can dictate pace and beat Golden State from three. Expect a competitive, back-and-forth first half that Memphis pulls away with late behind Boozer and Small.