Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Prediction: Summer League Opener Best Bet

The 2026 NBA Summer League tips off Thursday at Cox Pavilion in Las Vegas, and the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans get the honor of opening the event at 3:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video. This is Summer League basketball, so don’t expect to see Anthony Edwards or Zion Williamson on the floor — these rosters are built around 2026 draft picks, two-way hopefuls and G League grinders trying to force their way onto an NBA roster.

Minnesota’s group is centered on French big man Joan Beringer, who was the 17th overall pick back in 2025 and is using this trip to Vegas to build on a rookie season that saw him play only spot minutes. New Orleans, meanwhile, enters with a notably quiet offseason resume — no first-round pick this year and no notable trades — but the Pelicans have an intriguing local storyline in second-round selection Jaron Pierre Jr.

What the Market Thinks of a Wide-Open Vegas Field

Summer League doesn’t get the deep betting markets that the regular season does, but futures books have already weighed in on both franchises heading into the event. According to Summer League championship odds published July 8 via DraftKings Sportsbook, the Timberwolves sit at +5000 to win the Las Vegas title while the Pelicans are priced even longer at +7000. Neither number screams contender, which lines up with what both front offices have shown so far this offseason — this is a rebuilding trip for both squads rather than a showcase for a stacked lottery class.

For bettors looking to get a piece of the Summer League action, working with a book that offers a strong welcome promo is the smart play before betting a single point. A DraftKings promo code or FanDuel promo code can turn a modest Summer League wager into extra bankroll for the rest of the two-week event.

Beringer’s Bounce-Back Bid and New Orleans’ Local Hero

Beringer’s rookie campaign was more about seasoning than production — the 7-footer barely cracked Minnesota’s regular rotation as a teenager adjusting to the size, speed and physicality of the NBA game. But scouts have long liked his tools: long arms, mobile feet and legitimate rim-protection instincts that project well as an interior anchor if he can add strength and refine his footwork. Vegas gives him a real runway to show growth in a setting where he’ll see extended minutes and touches he simply didn’t get during his rookie year in Minnesota’s regular rotation.

New Orleans didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2026 draft and notably left both Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen — its 2025 lottery selections — off the Summer League roster entirely, choosing instead to let veterans on two-way deals and this year’s draftees carry the load. That puts the spotlight squarely on Jaron Pierre Jr., a New Orleans native who spent last season starring at SMU, where he averaged 17.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. Pierre, a 6-foot-5 guard, was a 2026 second-round pick for the Pelicans and gives the hometown crowd a genuine reason to pay attention beyond simple curiosity about a rebuilding roster.

The absence of Minnesota’s top-line stars means this game will likely be decided in the trenches — who controls the glass, who gets easy buckets in transition and which coaching staff manages minutes and rotations more efficiently across four quarters of unfamiliar lineups. Summer League games are notoriously sloppy affairs early in the week as players find chemistry with new teammates, and turnovers often dictate final scores more than shot-making. Bettors who like betting totals in this event should keep an eye on early pace, since Summer League games often run hotter than regular-season NBA contests once teams settle into a rhythm by their second or third game of the week.

Beyond the headline names, both benches are stocked with fringe prospects fighting for a training camp invite or a two-way roster spot. Those players tend to play with an extra level of urgency in July, since a strong week in Vegas can be the difference between an NBA opportunity and a season overseas or in the G League. That desperation often shows up in hustle stats — deflections, loose-ball recoveries, offensive rebounds — even when the shooting numbers look rough for both sides.

Anyone building out a Summer League betting card for the full two weeks should also check the odds and probability calculator to translate moneyline prices into implied win percentages before placing a wager, since juice and vig can distort what looks like value at first glance.

Wed, Oct 21 • 7:40 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Minnesota Timberwolves	+1.5 (-114)	+105	O 243.5 (-110)
Miami Heat	-1.5 (-115)	-116	U 242.5 (-105)

Prediction and Best Bet

Beringer’s added strength and a full offseason in Minnesota’s development program should give the Timberwolves a slight edge in the frontcourt, even against a Pelicans roster leaning on Pierre’s scoring instincts on the wing.

• Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves 84, New Orleans Pelicans 79
• Best Bet: Timberwolves on the moneyline

This is the best bet because Minnesota’s frontcourt size with Beringer should control the glass against a Pelicans roster that is leaning heavily on backcourt scoring without a true rim-protecting presence of its own.