Two weeks ago, this game would not have registered on our radar. Portland was slumping, and OKC looked like they were going for 70 wins, but a lot has changed. Portland is on a three-game win streak now. They’ve shown this team isn’t the pushover we expected them to be. All while OKC continues to be held back by injuries. OKC is still the better team, but it could be much closer than we expected in this matchup.
The first thing you need to know about this matchup is that OKC is coming into this game small. They’ve lost all their size to injury, losing Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, and now Isaiah Joe is listed out. Notably, this has forced OKC to play some of the smallest lineups in the league, with players maxing out around 6’7. This hasn’t slowed them down, though. They’ve managed to keep the ship on course despite the setback primarily through their elite defense. They still have three players in the top 10 for steals per game, and the discipline of this defense is incredible.
However, the shine of the Western Conference darlings has begun to tarnish. Losing their last two games to San Antonio without Wemby and Dallas without Luka, the limitations of their injuries are starting to become an issue. This offense has become highly dependent on SGA and Jalen Williams. They have both been impeccable through this time, but the surrounding cast needs to catch up. From a talent standpoint, we still like OKC in this matchup, but Portland might have a challenging blend of size and youth that can challenge the Thunder tonight.
Portland has been on a streak, winning its last three games, two against Minnesota and one against Atlanta. This team's size and hustle have been a considerable part of its success. They move the ball well in transition and play smothering defense. It doesn’t hurt that they have one of the tallest lineups in the league and length at every position.
Their point-of-attack defense with Toumani Camara could be a game-changer on someone like SGA. While the interior defense has been formattable with Robert Williams III and Donovan Clingan locking down the paint. This game will most likely come down to Portland’s shooting ability. If the three-ball isn’t going in, they may struggle against the squirrel OKC defense that can close out on passing lanes and pick players' pockets. Portland hasn’t been diligent about ball security this year, which is still why we think even with the size advantage, OKC beats Portland tonight.
Donovan Clingan Over 7.5 Rebounds: Clingan will be the biggest guy on the court by far. His ability to scoop up offensive and defensive boards makes this line a gimme. As long as he doesn’t get early foul trouble or baited out into switches too often he’ll get 8 boards easy!
Luguentz Dort 18+ Combined Points + Rebounds: Lue Dort always seems to have a solid outing against Portland. Tonight, he’ll most likely have one of Portland’s less effective defenders, like Scoot or Simons, on him, giving him the opportunity to get some easy points. He’s also been rebounding well with the bigs out, so 18+ could be achievable for him tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assists: One thing about Portland on defense are they close out hard. They like to challenge the ball hander high, which has led to some help defense giving up wide-open dunks. With how good of a passing SGA can be, we’re sure he’ll find some holes in this Portland defense for easy baskets.