The Oklahoma City Thunder continued to cruise through the Western Conference Playoffs with a 22-point victory in Game 1 of this series. The top overall seed in the West is now 5-0 in the Playoffs with an average margin of victory of 17 points.
For the Mavericks, Luka is clearly not healthy and had his worst game of the postseason in Game 1. The Mavs were -21 with Luka on the court, the lowest +/- on the team. He finished the game just 1-of-8 from 3 and had 5 turnovers.
Looking at the current odds for Game 2, the Thunder opened as 4.5-point favorites, with early action taking that number up to 5.5 points. The total opened at 218.5 points and currently sits at a consensus line of 218.
OKC covered the 3.5-point spread in Game 1, and the total stayed under the 218.5 consensus line. Dallas is now 4-3 ATS in the playoffs, while OKC moves to 4-1 ATS.
This is the second game of ESPN's Thursday night doubleheader and is set to tip at 9:30 PM EDT.
The first-quarter total has gone over 55.5 points just once in the Thunder's 5 playoff games, with the average coming in at just 44.2 points. Dallas went over this number 3 times in the 6-game series with the Clippers, but their Q1 average for the postseason still comes in at just 49.8 points.
Both of these teams have significant betting trends pointing to the under:
The under has cashed in 5 of OKC's last 6 games, while Dallas has played 14 of its last 20 games under the total. Additionally, the total has gone under in 4 of Dallas' last 5 road games, and 13 of their last 18 against Western Conference opponents.
Wiggins has been the spark plug off the bench that OKC has needed through their five straight postseason Ws. After playing 15 MPG during the Pelicans series, hitting this PRA mark in two of four games, his minutes spiked to 23 in Game 1 against Dallas, while scoring 16 points on a +18 performance with the bench unit.
After a near perfect performance, expect Coach Daigneault to trust Wiggins to make an immediate Game 2 impact and play 20+ minutes once again. We like him to go over his points + rebounds + assists prop on Thursday.
Gafford’s Game 1 prop play was a no-sweat win, so we are going back to his point total in Game 2. After dropping 16 points against the Thunder’s smaller frontcourt in Game 1, we think the 10.5-point prop reflects his round 1 struggles and ignores the fact that he scored 19 points in each of his regular season matchups with the Thunder.
Gafford came into this postseason with a chip on his shoulder after a few extremely difficult seasons in Washington D.C. Not only did he keep the Mavs in Game 1 with his scoring and 5 offensive boards, but has produced while on the court since the trade to Dallas. When playing 20+ minutes, Gafford reaches this line in 64% of games.