The New York Knicks outscored the Indiana Pacers 39-30 in the fourth quarter of Game 1 to take a 1-0 series lead. The Pacers covered the 6-point spread and the total sailed over 217 points.
The story of this series may be the two teams' bench players. The Pacers bench had a cumulative +/- of +31, while the Knick bench came in at -27. That difference could be even worse with Mitchell Robinson out with an ankle injury.
The Knicks opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 2, but early money on the Pacers has moved the line to 4.5 points. The total opened at 221.5 at most sportsbooks, with the current number sitting between 220 and 222.5 points depending on where you bet.
This number opened 3 points higher than the Game 1 total, but we are going back to the well again with two of the better over teams from these playoffs.
The total has gone over in 16 of the last 19 Knicks games, and in 5 of the last 6 Pacers games. The Game 1 total flew over 220 points, finishing at 238.
Given the pace that Game 1 was played at, the Mitchell Robinson injury, and recent betting trends for both teams, we think the over is a solid bet again here in Game 2.
With Tuner finding success against New York this season (28/5/23/23 PTS), we are expecting the Pacers big man to have another solid outing in Game 2. The Knicks' defensive coverage doesn’t allow for Haliburton and Siakam to get open looks, while Turner is allowed to be the primary beneficiary of pick-and-roll opportunities.
With Haliburton playing a more aggressive Game 2 dragging multiple Knicks onto him in the paint, expect Turner to flare out for multiple 3-point opportunities. Myles has hit two or more threes in three of four games against New York this season and has hit this prop mark in five of seven playoff games.
With the New York Knicks likely continuing to apply the same coverage and defensive pressure on Haliburton in Game 2, expect DiVincenzo to play outside of the paint more often than not on defense. Donte has only hit this prop once this postseason and only had 4 RA in Game 1 due to the kind of defense he was playing.
On the offensive end, Brunson will be running most of the action and unless the shot clock is winding down or Indiana misses a rotation, Donte should stick around his average of 2.4 APG this postseason. As a 3-point shooter and Haliburton stopper, there will be limited playmaking and rebounding opportunities for the Villanova Wildcat in this one.
With electric wing Bennedict Mathurin out for the season, rookie Ben Sheppard has stepped up on the offensive end during the postseason averaging 50% from beyond the arc on just over 3 opportunities per game.
Sheppard is now 5/7 on this point prop during the Pacer postseason and has seen his minutes increase to about 20 per game. After sporting a +13 +/- in Game 1, this is a must-play prop especially with Haliburton being a more aggressive driver.
The secret is out. Coach Thibs will have to rely on his bench unit more to win a seven-game series. Similar to how Coach Carslile and the Pacers deployed T.J. McConnell on a tired Knicks 1st unit, look for Thibs to play McBride around 15 minutes in this one while giving Donte and Brunson some rest during the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
McBride has hit this prop mark in each game that he’s played 20 or more minutes in this postseason, torching Philly for 2.2 3 PM per game off the bench. Although he’s had back-to-back quiet games, expect the rest to come for the Knicks starting guards and for Deuce McBride to be the beneficiary.