The Indiana Pacers hit 22 3-pointers and beat the Milwaukee Bucks 126-113 in game 4 of this series to take a 3-1 series lead.
The Bucks were without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (achilles), and it looks like they will be without both guys once again here in game 5 with Lillard currently listed as doubtful.
Before we go crazy and bet the house on Indiana, it is worth pointing out that the Bucks were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season. They finished the regular season with a 31-11 record at home, but were 18-22 on the road.
The Pacers opened as 3.5-point road favorites, with the consensus line currently sitting at 4.5 points. The total opened at 216.5 and currently sits at 215.5 at most sportsbooks.
This game will tip off at 9:30 PM EDT as the second leg of Tuesday night's TNT doubleheader.
Vegas opened with a total of 230 points for game 1, wich finished at 213 points. Since then, the total odds have been set at 214 - 223 points, and each game has gone over 230.
Whether it is the Lillard injury or the fact that game 1 was such a low scoring game, sportsbooks seem hesitant to hang too high of a number again here in game 5. Given the results from games 2-4, we don't understand how this number is still 215.5:
Game 2 total at close: 223.5 | Actual total: 233
Game 3 total at close: 223 | Actual total: 239
Game 4 total at close: 214.5 | Actual total: 239
For those wondering, here are the totals from the 6 games between the Pacers and Bucks during the regular season: 250, 247, 266, 235, 272. This is too strong of a trend for us not to bet it here. Give us over 215.5 points as our best bet for game 5 of this series.
Playing in just under 20 MPG this series, we are expecting T.J. McConnell to come through for Indiana at home tonight as their spark plug. Shooting 9 attempts per game this series alongside some elite playmaking shown with his 8 assists in Game 4’s win, we have trust that T.J. will garner enough opportunities to hit his PRA prop.
Post All-Star break, McConnell has averaged 13.8 PPG and 5.5 APG, numbers that would easily clear this prop. One of the only bench players on the Pacers with postseason experience, trust in T.J. to make a solid impact in a potential series-clinching game, and to cover his points + rebounds + assists prop.
After going 0 of 4 from beyond the arc in his last game, we are looking for Khris Middleton to step up in this elimination game for the limping Bucks.
Middleton has hit 2 triples in five of eleven games without Giannis this season (inc. playoffs) and with the team in desperation mode on offense, look for Khris to try and outmatch the Pacers’ scoring by shooting more than 4 attempts from deep.
In 12 elimination games played, the Bucks wing has hit 2 threes in 10 of those outings. We're taking him to hit 3+ in this pivotal game 5 matchup.