The Pelicans surprised many by really limiting the Thunder offense and hanging tight in game 1 of this series, eventually losing 94-92. Can the Pelicans repeat that performance, or will Oklahoma City take a commanding 2-0 series lead on Wednesday night?
This game opened with Oklahoma City favored by 8.5 points, but that line has already moved to 7.5. The total for game 1 finished at just 186 points, and after opening at 213.5 for game 2, has been bet down to 210.5 at most sportsbooks.
Our best bet for game 2 is New Orleans +7.5. Not only did the Pelicans nearly steal game 1, but they did so without a great game from either CJ McCollum or Brandon Ingram.
The story of the game for the Pelicans was Valanciunas and his 20 rebounds, however, it was the perimeter defense that impressed us. They held SGA, Williams, Giddey, and Dort to 22 of 54 shooting, and if they are able to repeat that performance, they could even up the series here in game 2.
New Orleans was one of the better road teams in the NBA this season, going 28-15 straight up and 24-17-2 against the spread. Take the 7.5 points and look for the Pelicans to once again keep things close in OKC.
With the Pelicans cracking down on Shai as a scorer in Game 2, expect his assist total to rise as the Thunder are due to hit more shots than in Game 1 where they shot just 31% from deep.
In the regular season, Shai had 8/5/8 assists against the Pels, so expect those playmaking numbers to return tonight.
In three matchups against the Thunder this season, Alvarado has gone for 10/14/6 PRA while playing in less than 20 MPG in each outing. Having a minimal impact with a plus/minus of -6 in Game 1, look for Willie Green to play Dyson Daniels and Naji Marshall more minutes as the bigger guards are due to disrupt this OKC offense better than Jose in this series.
The Thunder have done an outstanding job on Alvarado on defense, allowing him to shoot just 7 for 21 from the field in their three matchups.