The NBA Finals start today. The Miami Heat against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Marquee Match Up: LeBron James and Jimmy Butler: LeBron is playing at an exceptional level. He is averaging close to a triple double. Butler is the leader of the Heat and their go-to guy down the stretch. He seems to always let the game come to him and let his teammates play off him early. Lebron will impact the game in so many ways and exploit his opponent by driving to the basket. Butler is a great defender. LeBron will shut down any player for short periods of time. James wins this match up.
Marquee Match Up Two: Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis: Davis can dominate most opponents because of his outside shooting ability. In the paint he is unstoppable. Bam is a good player who can pass and rebound very well. He does most of his scoring near the basket. Davis has a size advantage of him. While he may not play Adebayo consistently, he will out play him offensively. Bam will get more rebounds and assists. Edge to Davis.
Bench Play: Miami get the slight edge because of Tyler Herro. He can score 15-20 from the bench. Andre Iguodala will give strong defensive play and championship leadership. Rajon Rando will be the settling influence when he comes in the game for Lebron. While Alex Caruso and Markieff Morris bring energy, Miami’s ball sharing style shows more consistency.
Coaching: Miami wins this because Erik Spoelstra has won three championships. This is Frank Vogel’s 1st trip to the Finals. Miami will give the Lakers some problem with their zone. If the Laker have Davis flash the lane and play off him, they will minimize the 2-3. Lakers must show the ability to shoot well from distance That is not their strong suit. Kentavious Caldwell- Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, and Danny Green will get most of those looks. Vogel will have to find a hot hand out of that group.
Numbers: Lakers to win Series -380. Heat to win Series +300.
Game One Pick: The numbers for Game One are Lakers -4.5 and over 217.5. Lakers win by 10 and the game goes over.
4 Prop Bets for Game One:
LeBron James over 8.5 in assists
Goran Dragic scoring over 18.5 points
Rajon Rondo scoring over 8.0 points
Anthony Davis under 9.5 in rebounds
My Series Pick: LeBron is the equalizer. The Laker are the more physical team and will dominate inside. The Heat will play better in half court sets and share the ball. They shoot 37.9% from three and will win that category over the Lakers. The Lakers will get the Heat in foul trouble and shoot more free throws. The LA and Heat point total has gone over consistently. Keep that in mind as the series moves on. Miami want to play fast and that will continue against LA. They will struggle with half court sets because the Lakers will not have to double and have rim protectors. Lakers wins the series in 6.
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