1-0 Friday night, 49-52-1 overall.
Hawks (+7.5) @ Nets (228.5)
Pick: Over 228.5
I was surprised that this total wasn’t higher. The Nets and Hawks met in the beginning of December in Atlanta and combined for 248 points in a 130-118 Brooklyn win. Kyrie Irving has missed more than a month now with a shoulder injury so when we see the Nets score 130 without him, that’s probably pretty telling about the opponent. Sure enough, the Hawks are third to last in the NBA in opponent points per game, giving up a shade over 118 a night. Brooklyn isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, as the Nets come into this one allowing approximately 112 points per game. That right there tells us there’s some value on the over with the total at 228.5. Then ask yourself about what kind of effort each team will put forth tonight.
Though they were a trendy pick to crash the playoff party in the East, the Hawks have woefully underachieved in the first half sitting at 6-23 and last in the conference coming into Saturday’s game. Brooklyn currently sits as a bottom tier playoff team in the East which would meet preseason expectations as the Nets wait for Kevin Durant to suit up in 2020-2021. So we have a bad team playing a mediocre team. As a general rule of thumb, unless they’re significantly challenged offensively, I don’t like betting unders with bad teams. In an 82-game season, the effort is almost always going to be difficult to handicap with these kinds of teams and defense is mostly effort. But, a mediocre team like the Nets might not bring a top-notch defensive effort either when it’s facing a team as bad as the Hawks and just scored 130 on them a couple weeks ago. Therefore, going over the total in Brooklyn tonight is a worthwhile investment.
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