1-1 Wednesday, 35-29-1 overall.
Hornets (+7.5) @ Pistons (213.5)
Pick: Pistons -7.5
We fell for a trap last week involving a Pistons line and this feels like another one. Detroit was laying 6.5 points against an Atlanta team it lost to by 17 earlier in the year. It felt weird, and almost too easy, and sure enough we were burned taking Atlanta as the Pistons blew out the Hawks last Friday night. This feels like a similar spot and we won’t be fooled again. Tonight is the already the third meeting of the season between Charlotte and Detroit. The Hornets have won both meetings by one possession and yet the Pistons are not only favored here but are laying 7.5. It wouldn’t have been shocking to see Detroit laying a short number at home given how close the previous two meetings were and that tonight’s game is in the Motor City. However, something’s up when it’s this high and while these two teams don’t attract much action at the window, it does feel like oddsmakers are begging you to take Charlotte tonight and we won with the Hornets on Wednesday. Not this time.
Mavericks (-2) @ Suns (231.5)
Pick: Over 231.5
Prior to Tuesday night against the Clippers, Dallas had been scoring at an insane rate. It was bound to regress to the mean and surely it did and our under ticket in its game against the Clippers cashed easily. However, this looks like a spot where the Mavericks get right back to their offensive ways. Phoenix ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring defense and just gave up 140 to a bad Washington team on Wednesday. The Suns have cooled off considerably since their 6-3 start and a lot of that is due to their level dropping defensively. Sure enough, four of Phoenix’s last five games have gone over the total. However, the Suns have still done their part offensively, which is why we aren’t running to back Dallas here. In those last five games for the Suns, Phoenix is averaging 115 points. If the Suns can hit that number again tonight, with this point spread indicating a very close game, Dallas should be able to do the rest and get this game over 231.5 total points.
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