Heat (+6.5) @ Raptors (214)
Pick: Heat +6.5
This handicap is a carbon copy of our lone NBA game pick yesterday as the Nets won a shootout in Milwaukee. The Raptors are locked into the second seed in the East. The Heat are a part of the five-team jumble in the conference that will see only three teams play beyond this week. When there’s this much of a motivational mismatch, and the team with all the reasons to care is the one getting over two possessions, you better believe we’re taking those points. Miami might become a public play as the week drags on with arguably the biggest story in the NBA right now being “Can Dwyane Wade can get to the playoffs one last time.” It was for that reason that we thought this line might be closer to a pick ’em than the Heat getting 6.5. This number is too high so jump on it now.
Nets (+3.5) @ Pacers (219)
Pick: Pacers -3.5
The Nets finally got a big victory, 133-128 in Milwaukee yesterday. But, this game in Indiana is probably the harder one for the Nets to win on the weekend back-to-back for a couple reasons. First off, the Bucks rested Giannis Antetokounmpo yesterday with the top seed in the East secured. While the Pacers are headed to the postseason, they’d surely like home-court advantage to open the playoffs against Boston, who they trail by one game with two remaining. The Nets have struggled mightily to cover numbers on the second leg of a back-to-back, sitting at 4-10 ATS so far in that situation. The Pacers have protected their home court well all season, posting a 29-11 record in Indianapolis and 23-17 ATS in those 40 games. Brooklyn has been far too inconsistent recently to trust in this spot.
Clippers (+12) @ Warriors (235.5)
Pick: Clippers +12
Sure enough, the Warriors turned things up a notch when the stakes heightened in the race for the top seed in the West. The two-time defending champs have won four straight and six out of seven and need just one more victory to clinch the number one seed in the conference. With that said, we’re right back to a spot in which the Warriors are being overvalued. We already saw this to a lesser extent on Friday when the Cavaliers finished a road trip in the Bay Area by covering a massive 15.5-point spread without many doubts. Pretty much anyone that power rates the NBA would have the Clippers as more than 3.5 points better than Cleveland so this line seems off just in principle. Throw in the fact that the Clippers are in danger of slipping to the eighth seed in the West and having to face this very Warriors team next weekend to open the playoffs and we’re guessing Doc Rivers’ team will be ready to go here. The Clippers just had a bad 122-117 loss as a double-digit favorite against the Lakers on Friday in a game in which we expected them to roll. But who are we to hold grudges? Especially when the Clippers are 19-13 ATS after a loss, a record only four teams are better than in the same spot.