NBA: Some like it Hot - Frank feels the Heat vs Celtics and the Sixers vs Mavericks

Heat (+6.5) @ CELTICS (212.5)
Pick: Heat +6.5

We wrote about Boston’s inconsistencies last week and not much has changed since. On Friday, the Celtics started hot against Indiana but had to hold on for a pivotal 114-112 victory. However, they followed it up with a clunker in Brooklyn on Saturday, losing 110-96 to the Nets. Boston enters the final five games of the regular season tied with Indiana for the fourth slot in the East which decides home court advantage in the eventual playoff series between the two teams. You would think a team in Boston’s position would be motivated enough to cover point spreads at least on a semi-frequent basis. The Celtics are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and yet are a 6.5-point favorite against playoff-hungry Miami on Monday. The Heat are a league-best 25-12 ATS in road games this season. The last time Boston covered a point spread this big was on March 9 against a Lakers team that was in the process of quitting. Erik Spoelstra has proven during the last five years that his coaching acumen was more than just having LeBron James on his team. The Heat enter having won six of their last eight and could lose by two possessions for us to cash here. Miami getting this many points is our favorite play on tonight’s NBA card.

Sixers (-6) @ MAVERICKS (218)
Pick: Mavericks +6

Philadelphia certainly tried to let the game slip away in the fourth quarter against Minnesota on Saturday. While the Sixers won and covered against the Timberwolves, our guess is there’s going to be some value fading the Sixers in some of these meaningless regular season games. We learned today that Jimmy Butler won’t go in Dallas tonight with back tightness. Joel Embiid did not travel with the team on the current road trip due to load management. How can you feel confident laying two possessions with a team that is telling you they don’t care about these games by resting its best player and is also without another key player? Dallas recently picked up wins against Oklahoma City and Golden State and also covered games in March at Denver and at Portland. Sometimes you see lottery teams go on these kinds of runs where they’re suddenly more competitive at the end of the year with players battling for jobs for the following season. The Mavericks are also an impressive 22-15 ATS at home. Nothing makes us feel good about the Sixers side in this one.