NBA: Greg Frank likes the under in one game, the over in the other

Magic -7.5 @ KNICKS (215), 7:35 pm
Pick: Under 215
We finally got a winner on a Knicks game last weekend as the under cashed in their loss to the Timberwolves thanks to a low-scoring fourth quarter. Sunday’s Knicks game was probably the biggest surprise of their season as they defeated the Spurs 130-118. We’re always going to look to bet against anomalous results and the Knicks scoring 130 points was certainly one of those. Give us the Knicks to score under 100 tonight meaning the full game total should be under 215 without much sweat.

Celtics +3.5 @ RAPTORS (226.5), 8:05 pm
Pick: Over 226.5

Boston and Toronto are two of the Association’s better defensive teams as both are in the top 10 in opponent points per game. But, as the season hits its final quarter turn, we’ve seen enough to know that good defense doesn’t necessarily lend itself to games landing under the closing total. Sometimes there can be overreactions in betting markets to how good those teams are defensively which results in more overs than unders for those teams. That’s what we’ve seen here as Boston is 35-25 to the over in 60 games which is the third best over record in the NBA. Toronto’s over record of 33-28 is the sixth best in the league. In the same way we’re betting against an anomalous result in going under in the Magic-Knicks game, we’re betting on Toronto to score more tonight after only scoring 98 against that same Magic team on Sunday.