NBA: Another Sunday shot at the Over

Heat (-5) at Knicks (209.5), 7:30

Pick: Over 209.5

We lost on a Knicks over in their last game despite an 120-point first half between New York and Brooklyn. However, that total was 223. This one is down to 209.5, which is the lowest total in a Knicks game in close to three months.

Granted, Miami isn’t a good offensive team -- ranking 26th in points per game -- but if there’s a game in which the Heat are going to score, it’s this one. Last weekend, Miami trailed at halftime against the putrid Bulls before turning it up in the second half to win, 117-103. Our guess is this one turns out similarly for a Miami team that needs to stay on the right side of the playoff bubble in the East.

The Knicks have averaged about 105 points per game in their last 10 and that’s the same average Miami has allowed in its last 10. If New York can get there on Sunday, a Miami win by any margin cashes the over for us. We’ll take our chances.