NBA: Sixers, Knicks, Nets in Action - Under, Over and Close

Hawks (+12.5) @ SIXERS (231.5) 7:05 pm
Pick: Under 231.5

At first glance, the total jumped out at us much more than the spread in this one. At 12.5, the spread is about what we expected. The Sixers have been great at Wells Fargo Center, but it’s hard to ever feel comfortable laying that many points. We’ve discussed a lot about the Sixers and their tendency to play to the over. They’re a below average defensive team that scores a lot. Entering Friday, the over is 24-18 in the Sixers 42 games. However, our hunch that this total was a little high proved to be accurate. Philly has played just four games with a total higher than 231.5 and three of those four went under. In a bigger surprise, Atlanta has played 10 games with a posted total greater than 231.5. However, six of those 10 also went under. We like the Sixers to have this one in order in the fourth quarter and the pace to slow considerably. We’re just not going to take our chances on Atlanta getting through the back door.

Pacers (-8.5) @ KNICKS (219.5) 7:35 pm
Pick: Over 219.5

We mentioned that the Sixers are 24-18 to the over in 2018-19 so far. The team directly below them when it comes to over wins this season? The New York Knicks. For as high as the total seemed in the Sixers-Hawks game, it looks equally as low in this Friday night affair at Madison Square Garden. New York has played 14 games with a total lower than tonight’s 219.5, and the over has cashed in 11 of those contests. Indiana has long been a team to slow the pace and play good defense so that probably partially explains why this total is at 219.5. However, in its last seven games, the Pacers are averaging approximately 118 points per game. We have no reason to think the Pacers can’t at least match that number against the lowly Knicks. So, can the Knicks get over the century mark? Cleveland, a team that’s equally as bad as New York, did with ease on Tuesday against Indiana in a 123-115 Pacers win. We think this one is similar and the line at 8.5 is about right so there is more value on the over.

Nets (+9.5) @ RAPTORS (221) 7:35 pm
Pick: Nets +9.5

Too many points. The Nets enter this game at 21-22 and on the right side of the East’s playoff bubble. Just nine of Brooklyn’s 22 losses have been by double digits this season. Normally, we’re going to look for fringe playoff teams to play competitive games win or lose. Often times, those are the kinds of teams that are right in the middle of the pack in the NBA and therefore don’t blow many teams out but don’t get blown out much themselves either. We’re on D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie to keep Brooklyn in this one against a Toronto team that is just 9-12 ATS as a home favorite this season.