UFC 329 Underdog Picks: The Best Value Bets on the McGregor vs Holloway 2 Card

UFC 329 headlines Saturday, July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with Conor McGregor’s five-year comeback against Max Holloway, but the main event isn’t the only place where plus-money bettors have options. From the co-main event down through the prelims, this card is loaded with live underdogs, several of whom have a legitimate, defensible path to victory rather than just a puncher’s chance. Here’s a breakdown of the most compelling value plays on the board, and the one worth actually betting.

McGregor’s Number Is Moving, But the Risk Is Real

McGregor hasn’t competed since breaking his leg in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021, and a planned 2024 comeback against Michael Chandler fell through with a broken toe. The line on this fight has swung dramatically: Holloway opened as a massive -550 favorite with McGregor sitting around +420, and that number has tightened all week to roughly -240/+180 as fight week money pours in on the Irishman. McGregor is only 1-3 in his last four fights and has a single UFC win in the last decade, so while the shortening odds suggest the public sees something, betting a fighter coming off a five-year layoff and a catastrophic leg injury is speculative at best. It’s the highest-profile underdog on the card, but not the smartest one.

Pimblett’s Grappling Advantage Is the Sharpest Angle on the Card

Paddy Pimblett enters as a live underdog against Benoit Saint Denis in the co-main event, and the style matchup actually favors him more than the odds suggest. Saint Denis is a heavy-volume wrestler who averages over four takedown attempts per 15 minutes and has a 100% finish rate across his UFC wins, but Pimblett is a second-degree BJJ black belt with ten career submissions, including a triangle choke finish of King Green. Analysts have pointed to Pimblett’s 44% takedown defense as the one real question mark, but if Saint Denis’s takedowns land him in bad positions rather than dominant ones, Pimblett has shown he can turn defense into a finish. Pimblett just went 25 hard rounds with Justin Gaethje, proving his cardio and chin hold up deep into a fight, and multiple analysts have called this closer to a genuine coin flip than the number implies.

Bautista Gets His Revenge Shot at Even Money

Mario Bautista’s only real mark against him in recent memory traces back to his UFC debut in January 2019, when Cory Sandhagen submitted him in the first round. Since that loss, Bautista has rattled off an eight-fight win streak, the third-longest active run in UFC bantamweight history, and he’s coming off a February submission finish of Vinicius Oliveira. Ranked No. 6 in the division to Sandhagen’s No. 5, Bautista is basically a pick’em fight priced at plus-money, and he’s the one with both the recent finishing form and a score to settle from six years ago.

Royval’s Ranking Doesn’t Match His Price

The most glaring gap between the official rankings and the sportsbook line belongs to Brandon Royval, who takes on Lone’er Kavanagh at flyweight. Royval sits at No. 4 in the division, a full two spots higher than the No. 6 ranked Kavanagh, yet the odds have Royval as the bigger underdog of the two. That’s backwards from how these lines usually shake out. Royval has nine of his 17 career wins by submission and has proven he can finish fights at every stage of a bout, while Kavanagh, unbeaten inside the Octagon, is drawing the shorter price largely off momentum and hype rather than a clear ranking edge. Whenever the rankings and the odds disagree this openly, it’s worth digging into before the betting window closes.

The Prelim Longshots Worth Knowing

A couple of underdogs buried lower on the card deserve a mention even if they’re tougher sells for real money. Nikita Krylov, priced near even money against Robert Whittaker, is trending up over his last five fights while Whittaker has dropped two of his last five, giving Krylov a momentum edge the number doesn’t fully capture. King Green, meanwhile, is in the middle of a legitimate late-career surge, winning three straight including a submission finish of Jeremy Stephens in May, and he gets a live, unpredictable opponent in Terrance McKinney. On the far end of the risk spectrum, Cody Garbrandt is a well over 3-to-1 underdog against Adrian Yanez off a decision win in his last outing, but bantamweight has a long history of live-wire finishes, including T.J. Dillashaw’s stunning title-winning stoppage of Renan Barao, so nobody should be shocked if the former champion still has one big right hand left.

Prediction and Best Bet

Of everything on the board, Brandon Royval is the clearest value play. He’s the higher-ranked fighter taking the bigger number, he finishes fights at a high rate across multiple methods, and the gap between his ranking and his price is the biggest inefficiency on the entire card. That’s a real, defensible underdog bet rather than a hope-and-pray longshot.

• Prediction: Brandon Royval defeats Lone’er Kavanagh
• Best Bet: Brandon Royval on the moneyline

Bettors mapping out the full UFC 329 card should run the numbers through an odds and probability tool before placing anything, since the gap between implied probability and real form is exactly where value dogs like Royval and Pimblett get created. Pair that with an expected value calculator to see how the plus-money math plays out over a full card stacked with underdogs.

For anyone setting up a betting account before the main event, a DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, or Caesars promo code can all be applied to UFC 329 markets ahead of Saturday’s card at T-Mobile Arena. Bettors leaning sweepstakes-style play instead of a traditional sportsbook can also check the sweepstakes casinos hub for other options this weekend.