UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg Betting Preview for Saturday, April 11
The UFC delivers a loaded card this weekend with UFC 327, headlined by Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg for the light heavyweight title. Unfortunately, the second title fight between Joshua Van and Tastu Taira has been postponed until May. This is one of the best cards top to bottom in recent memory, and there are plenty of betting angles to find. Let’s break down three fights that stand out.
Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg
Jiri Prochazka comes in with a 32-5-1 record and one of the most dangerous styles in the division. He fights at a high pace, throws from awkward angles, and is always working to find a finish. On the defensive side, he absorbs nearly the same rate he lands, which creates a lot of openings for his opponent to find.
Ulberg is much more calm and collected than Jiri inside the Octagon. He’s cleaner on the feet, lands at a higher rate, and takes less damage overall. The gap defensively does stand out, allowing just over 4 strikes absorbed per minute compared to Jiri sitting around 5.6.
The difference in this fight will come down to who is able to inflict their style and pressure more. Jiri fights at a longer average time, pushes deeper into fights, and is comfortable in chaos. I believe Ulberg’s path to victory is finding an early round 1 or 2 finish, if not, Jiri should have the upper hand come later rounds.
Jiri has the reach advantage and the ability to mix things up. He is going to need to find angles to get to Ulberg and he must create moments for the crowd and judges to react to. I do think this is a close fight as bookmakers are showing us. Jiri has much more experience and has fought the best in the division, that matters to me.
Prediction: Jiri Prochazka ML (-103, ProphetX)
Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit
Curtis Blaydes enters at 19-5 with one of the most reliable skill sets in the heavyweight division. His wrestling is his identity, averaging over 5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and when he commits to getting his opponent down, he is usually successful.
Hokit is 8-0 and will bring aggression and volume in this fight, it’s who he is. That said, this matchup will be the toughest fight of his life and the UFC did him no favors giving him Blaydes so soon. Hokit throws at a higher rate on the feet, but that plays directly into Blaydes’ strengths if he can close distance. The concern for Hokit is dealing with sustained grappling pressure, especially early on when both fighters are dry.
Blaydes has faced much higher-level competition and has shown he can control experienced heavyweights. Even looking at the numbers, his ability to dictate where the fight takes place is the key here. Hokit’s takedown defense looks strong on paper, but this is a completely different level of wrestler he simply hasn’t seen yet. Blaydes can control time and find damage.
Prediction: Curtis Blaydes ML (-115, Novig promo code)
Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque
Kelvin Gastelum comes in at 21-10, losing seven of his last eleven fights. He’s not going to overwhelm with volume, but he’s defensively sound and does a good job avoiding damage. His fights tend to be more measured, especially as they go longer. Seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance.
Luque is the more aggressive fighter. He lands at a higher rate and brings more offensive output, but he also absorbs significantly more damage, and when he loses, its lately been by finish. That’s the concern here again, especially if Gastelum can draw him into exchanges where he takes just as much as he gives, and he could find himself with another KO loss if he is not careful.
Gastelum’s ability to stay composed and control pace is the should be the difference here. As mentioned, he likely could find a KO shot, but with Luque coming off back-to-back losses and losing three of his last four, I believe we will get a smart fight here where he looks to find a finish, or get his hand raised by the judges. Gastelum rarely gets reckless, and he’s durable enough to handle pressure early. If he keeps this fight at his pace, it likely turns into a competitive back and forth three-round match.
Prediction: Fight Goes Distance (-112, Novig review)