UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan Betting Preview for Saturday, April 4

The UFC heads back to Vegas this weekend with a rather weak card, headlined by Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan, which could give us fight of the night. This card features a mix of rising prospects and matchups that should create some angles to fire away on. We’ll dive into three fights that stand out from a betting perspective and who I believe will have their hand raised.

Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci

Virna Jandiroba enters with a 22-4 record and one of the most dangerous submission games in the division. She’s coming off a championship fight loss to Mackenzie Dern, after going on a five fight win streak.

She averages 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes and consistently looks to bring fights to the mat, where she is most comfortable controlling position. Even when she doesn’t secure a submission, her ability to dictate where the fight takes place allows her to rack up control time and win by judges’ decision, which she did in four of those five fights during her streak.

Tabatha Ricci comes in at 12-3 and is the more active striker, landing at a higher rate with better volume. She can mix in takedowns, but I am not sure that’s the path to take here. She needs to rely on setting a higher pace and bring more activity. The concern here is her ability to handle sustained grappling pressure.

Jandiroba’s path is very clear to get back in the win column, even at an older age, close distance, initiate grappling, and control. Ricci will need to keep this fight standing and win on volume, I love Jandiroba in this spot.

Prediction: Virna Jandiroba ML (-114, Prophet X)

Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan

This fight will start and end on the feet. Alice Pereira is still early in her career but brings a composed and technical striking style. She doesn’t overwhelm with volume, but she is calculated, defensively sound, and avoids unnecessary damage. Her 72% striking defense stands out, especially in a matchup like this. She also got her UFC debut jitters out of the way and now it’s her time to go to work.

Hailey Cowan, in this matchup, is far more hittable. She absorbs more strikes than she lands and has shown clear defensive gaps, particularly when pressured. She should have lost four of her last five fights if not gifted a split decision. While she does have

grappling upside, she hasn’t shown consistent ability to control her opponents, and her striking exchanges have put her in danger in her previous fights.

The biggest gap here is defensive discipline. Pereira keeps fights clean and controlled, while Cowan tends to get drawn into exchanges where she takes more damage than she gives. I believe that will give Pereira enough damage and points to get it done by the judges score card. We could get some value by taking both Virna and Alice to win their fights by decision if you want better odds.

Prediction: Alice Pereira ML (-120, Bet365)

Ethyin Ewing vs Rafael Estevam

This is my favorite fight on the card, and we have been very successful fading fighters with the infamous 0 in their loss column. This matchup is a classic striker versus grappler matchup, but the numbers on paper look like a fairly balanced fight on both sides.

Ewing brings serious volume on the feet, landing over 5.5 significant strikes per minute. He’s aggressive, pushes pace, and is comfortable in extended striking exchanges as we saw in his last fight slowing down fan favorite Malcom Wellmaker.

Estevam is the more grappling-heavy fighter, averaging over 6 takedowns per 15 minutes. He looks to control opponents and dictate pace through wrestling. But his takedown accuracy sits at just 38%, and if he struggles to consistently get the fight to the ground, he could find himself at a disadvantage on the feet.

Ewing is also not a new kid on the block, he’s a collegiate division two wrestler, and has shown solid work in that department. We are looking at the stats there he is defensive wrestling and fight control. Ewing’s 100% takedown defense is a major factor. If he can keep this fight standing, his volume and pressure should allow him to outwork Estevam over time.

Estevam’s path is clear, but it’s also dependent on success early. If those takedowns aren’t landing consistently, the fight likely shifts toward Ewing’s pace and striking output.

Prediction: Ethyin Ewing ML (-124, Novig promo code)