UFC 325 Preview: Top DFS Picks and Main Event Prediction for January 31
The UFC heads back DOWN UNDA to Sydney, Australia, as they enter their second event on Paramount+. Following a week where Justin Gaethje won the main event by beating Paddy Pimblett, we find ourselves in another what would have been a PPV event. Headlined by an exciting rematch between one of the game’s legends and a rising superstar, followed by a laundry list of Australian fighters. Let’s get into it!
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes #2 (Featherweight Title Fight)
First, let’s go back and talk about their first fight. Lopes, a very inexperienced but exciting fighter at the time, was thrust into a title fight with one of the game’s best of all time. Volkanovski showed his experience, winning 49-46 on two judges’ scorecards, out-landing him 158 to 63 in significant strikes, Volk landing 136 head strikes to Diego’s 49, while Volk also utilized and connected on 14/20 leg kicks, had 1:18 minutes of control, and landed only 1 of 11 takedowns.
Diego attempted no takedowns, had a poor striking accuracy on offense, and a poor defensive plan. So, we ask what has changed since then? Volk has not fought anyone since, yet he seems to be everywhere online right now: multiple cooking shows, running his farm, his podcast, and nonstop media.
Since that loss, Diego won his next fight by KO over a legit rising contender in Jean Silva, which not only shocked the world, but put Diego right back into this spot. One thing we don’t see Diego doing is making multiple cooking shows a week. We don’t see him at all because he’s grinding in the gym, focused on one goal, avenging his loss.
I know Lopes believes the first fight slipped away and that this time he will make adjustments. He knows he’s the fresher, younger, more explosive fighter at this stage in their careers. He also knows he just needs to find that one shot, and he has a good chance of giving Volkanovski his third KO loss in four fights. If Volk pulls this out, will I be shocked? No, but Lopes has shown me he has what it takes to not only be champion, but defend his belt successfully once achieved.
Prediction: Diego Lopes Moneyline (+125, Novig promo code)
Underdog 2-Man Slip
Mauricio Ruffy – Higher than 49.5 Significant Strikes
Benoît Saint Denis – Higher than 7.5 Fight Time (mins)
Ruffy is one of the cleanest volume plays on the card. I believe this fight has a great chance to go the distance. Both him and Fiziev are strikers, both have solid defense and both know how to use angles to attack and avoid damage. I believe both fighters get up and over their strike number as I think we see both above 70+.
BSD fights with constant pressure, if Hooker can withstand early danger, and if BSD doesn’t get caught in something unwarranted, we should see this fight into the 3rd round. The 3rd round is where I think we could see a finish by a gassed-out fighter. I truly think this one goes the distance unless BSD gets finished, I don’t see a world where Hooker gets finished in back-to-back rights, especially at home.
DFS 6-Man Slip
Quillan Salkilld – $9,700
Tallison Teixeira – $9,100
Mauricio Ruffy – $8,200
Oban Elliott – $7,800
Diego Lopes – $7,700
Junior Tafa – $7,300
Starting the card with Salkilld, yes Mularkey has way more experience, but Salkilld has shown how dangerous he is. He offers relentless pace, grappling control, and finish upside. Mularkey is taking this fight on short notice and that may not be a wise decision. Teixeira, though I don’t think is very good, has an extreme size, height, and reach advantage.
If he just stays at range on Tuivasa and locks in, he can finally retire Tuivasa with his sixth straight loss. Teixeira brings early knockout upside, he could find a round 1 or 2 finish. Even without a finish in this spot, Ruffy could score us points through volume in a back and forth chess match fo striking and defensive skills.
Oban Elliott is a sneaky mid-range play as I believe that fight goes to the distance, and we need some mid-priced fighters. I think he can pull out rounds 2 and 3 if they get there, and he can get his hand raised by the judges. Lopes is simply underpriced for a five-round title fight, but he is rightfully the underdog.
He has upside for a finish, and in a decision win, he could get off more striking volume than last time. Tafa is a pure volatility play, he either brings us tremendous value with a finish at this price, or he outscores his price point with a victory. If Tafa can stay on his feet and last to round 2 and 3, he can get back in the win column.