Fight Night is back! With Moicano and Saint-Denis squaring off in the octagon in Paris, France. This might not be a numbered UFC card, but it's close! It has some excellent fighters across the board, and we can’t wait to see them in the octagon this Saturday at 3:00 PM ET. We’ll be breaking down the card, the fighters, and our thoughts on the betting lines. There is always a ton of value on the lines in fights like this, as we see less well-known fighters. We have some sleeper picks that you might want to jump on early! Regardless, this card looks to be shaping up nicely, and we can’t wait to see how it shakes out!
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We’ll see Caeneiro take on Moicano on his home solid as the rising star continues this climb. Less than nine years since his last UFC main event, Renato "Moicano" Carneiro is back. With an aggressive style and loads of submissions, Carneiro has won five out of his last six fights. Not known as a big striker, having only one knockout in 25 fights, Carneiro proved his skills could also make him a contender in the lightweight division.
Benoit Saint-Denis's opponent has made his name known as a prospect to watch with a highly aggressive, heavy-hitting striking game. Coming off of a loss to Dustin Poirier that he has been quick to claim was due to a Staph infection, Saint-Denis will look to get back on track in front of his home crowd in France with a big statement win. Both fighters expect a war, with Saint Denis looking to overwhelm Carneiro with strikes.
This should be a tough test for Carneiro, who tends to take more significant strikes than Saint-Denis dishes out. While Moicano is durable and skilled in submissions, the output of the French fighter could prove decisive if Carneiro can't avoid damage.
We expect Saint-Denis to have the edge in this fight. As a -270 favorite currently, the books feel the same. We’d lean pretty heavily into a KO or TKO finish for Saint-Denis. All he needs is one solid blow to land, and he’ll be able to take it. Alternatively, Saint-Denis is no chump on the ground. A submission victory for Saint-Denis is currently sitting at about +350 odds. So, if you’re looking for more juice, that line is there for the taking. Overall, I think this one will be over relatively quickly. We’d be surprised if these fighters let it end in a decision.
Currently, Nassourdine Imavov is approaching his four-year mark in the UFC with a 6-2 record, with one no-contest. Coming off back-to-back wins against Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier, Imavov looks to keep such momentum going. A speedy type of fighter with excellent striking accuracy, Imavov considers himself the fastest fighter in the middleweight division, believing that his stand-up game will overwhelm Brendan Allen.
Brendan Allen is riding a seven-fight win streak and has been visibly frustrated with not receiving a title shot. As a dangerous submission specialist, he will likely look to take the fight to the mat since only one of his wins inside the UFC has come via knockout. He respects Imavov's speed but feels stronger with better cardio and overall skills.
This might be a war of styles, as Allen will try to nullify the striking of Imavov with takedowns and grappling. At the same time, Imavov has a strong takedown defense and volume striking to take the unanimous decision if the fight does stay standing. Allen will be on the hunt, looking for an opportunity to dominate on the ground.
Allen’s abilities on the ground make him a tempting take for this fight. Despite being the underdog in this one, he is on a hot streak. Motivated to earn his title shot, we don’t think Allen will play this one safe and will want to complete it by submission. We love his money line right now at +170 in general. We believe he has a ton of value at that number. He may even have a little more at +600 for a submission. Considering how many victories he has earned through submission, it’s not a bad bet, either!
Joanderson Brito comes in on a five-fight win streak. His powerful leg kicks and wrestling have worked great in his UFC career, as his only loss came against Bill Algeo. Meanwhile, William Gomis is undefeated in the UFC but against considerably weaker competition. The Frenchman boasts a 3-0 record thus far in his UFC career, though he has shown some glaring weaknesses in his takedown defense that might play into Brito's strengths. The power and grappling advantage is expected to see Brito pick up the unanimous decision nod.
Kevin Jousset comes in 2-0 in the UFC, but the level of competition has been really lacking thus far, with the best win over Kenan Song. Bryan Battle is a former TUF winner who has been in with stiffer competition, holding a 4-1 record in the UFC, headlined by a 14-second KO of Gabe Green. With Battle's well-rounded skill set and experience, he should get the nod in this matchup despite Jousset's volume striking. With experience in the UFC and a more well-rounded skill set, we think Battle could take this one in decision.
Morgan Charriere is the big favorite in this fight against the short-notice replacement Gabriel Miranda, and his well-rounded striking and durability see him through the fight. Miranda is ultra-hittable due to a porous defense with a meager output. Charriere should outstrike Miranda for the entire three rounds and en route to a TKO.
Fares Ziam has put together a solid 5-2 UFC record based on his defensive skills and low-output striking game. Matt Frevola is an aggressive, risk-acceptant type who comes into this bout off a head-kick KO loss and will be no pushover. The defensive game of Ziam could frustrate Frevola, given his advantage in reach, and can easily result in a decision victory for Ziam, provided he can stay away from both the relentless pressure and takedowns by Frevola.
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