The UFC returns to the Apex in Vegas this weekend for Vegas 94. The card is not spectacular, but there are some intriguing matchups in both men’s and women’s in this event.
We have a good mix of vets and young guns on this card, which should keep the night interesting!
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Steve Garcia has been on a roll winning 4/L5 fights by KO, and 3 straight. I do believe he is the better fighter in every area. He lands more sig strikes per minute, while taking less per minute. He has way better striking accuracy, and he averages more takedowns per fight, with a stronger takedown defense.
Seungwoo Choi is just 1-3 in his L4 fight, on a 1 fight win streak. Garcia can win this in more than one way, so I like those angles. Pairing him with Carolina over 1.5 rounds.
Lucie Pudilova’s 4/L5 fights have gone the distance, with the one still going past the 1.5 mark. Luana Carolina has gone the distance in 3/L5, the 2 coming by KO, still in the third round, both fighters have gone past o1.5 in their L5 fights. If you are okay with -148/-150 lines you can take Garcia Straight on DK for -148.
Let me preface this by saying I really like to stay away from most women fights as far as winners are concerned. Too many go to the judges’ scorecards, leaving it in the hands of possibly the most incompetent people involved in any professional sport.
I do think Maverick has the experience, faced the better fighters at this point in her career and is trying to keep pushing to climb the rankings. This is Dione Barbosa’s 2nd UFC fight, and she did not wow me in her debut (And we won that ticket!) Maverick is 4/5 in her L5 but coming in on a 2-fight win streak.
If Maverick is serious about her career and climbing the rankings, she can’t lose this fight. Maverick should get this to the ground and keep it there as Barbosa has 0 takedown defense and Maverick lands more strikes per minute.
Pairing her with Lemos/Virna to go o1.5. This may be tight, we COULD see an early KO by Lemos or Sub by Verna, I just don't see it until later rounds when one gasses a bit. This is a 5 round fight, and both know they have 5 rounds to pick their spots.
If it stays on the feet in the ring Lemos will light her up. If Virna gets this on the ground or against the cage, Virna could be in a good spot. I think they test each other a bit, get into some longer exchanges and avoid the early outage to get us past o1.5. Virna has gone distance in 4 straight and Lemos over 1.5 in 3 straight.
This all depends on how long this goes. Tho 4/L5 fighters vs Choi have all landed over 23.5 Sig Strikes, the one that didn't he won by KO 1st round back in Korea when UFC had Korea Night. Garcia is over in 3/L5, one he was KO early and the other one he threw 40 and only connected 19 before KO his opponent.
13 of Garcias 20 fights have ended by KO as he is 12-1 to KO. If we can get any distance here into the middle 2nd or even pushing this later (which may not happen with these 2), he has a good chance to put up some volume.
Garcia lands 4.85 Sig Strikes Per Minute with 56% accuracy (putting him around a True Landing of 2.7 and Choi absorbs 3 Sig Strikes Per Min) I do think we need to get into 2nd round for this to hit, which I believe can happen here.
2-Leg (-114) Bet365:
Garcia ML
Carolina/Pudilova o1.5 Rounds
2-Leg (-111) DraftKings:
Maverick ML
Lemos/Virna o1.5 Rounds
Best Bet: Garcia o23.5 Sig Strikes (-115) DraftKings