Orioles vs. Mets Prediction: Alonso’s Return Continues as Baltimore Chases a Wild-Card Miracle

Pete Alonso already spoiled the sentimental version of this reunion by putting on an Orioles uniform and knocking the Mets out of the playoff race in the process — now Baltimore needs two more just like it to keep its own long-shot October hopes breathing.

Quick take:

• Pick: Baltimore Orioles moneyline
• Why: Chris Bassitt gives the O’s the sharper starter in a game only one team still has a reason to win
• The number to watch: Robert Stock’s 5.93 ERA and 1.75 WHIP for the eliminated Mets

Baltimore (73-78) rolls into the middle game of this set three games back of Cleveland for the American League’s last wild-card spot with 11 to play, and the arithmetic is about as unforgiving as it gets — the Orioles basically need to win out and get help. New York (69-81) doesn’t have that problem anymore. Monday’s 2-1 loss formally eliminated the Mets, capping a season that opened with a franchise-record $358.4 million payroll and is now playing out the string in front of a fan base still processing Alonso trading Queens for Baltimore over the winter.

Why Vegas Still Likes the Home Team

Books have this one closer than the standings suggest. New York opened as a modest favorite at home, with moneyline prices hovering around -134 for the Mets and +114 to +122 for the Orioles depending on the book, the runline sitting at Mets -1.5 (+145/+146) against Baltimore +1.5 (-175/-182), and the total parked at 8.5. That’s a market pricing in ballpark and lineup depth more than any read on desperation or standings stakes — which, with one team mathematically dead and the other fighting for its life, feels like exactly the kind of number worth leaning against.

The Pitching Matchup Tips This One

Chris Bassitt takes the ball for Baltimore in his 17th start, carrying a 7-5 record, 4.88 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with a 6.6 K/9 over 90 1/3 innings — a veteran starter who’s given the Orioles length all year even in a rough team season. Robert Stock counters for the Mets in just his eighth start, and the results have been shaky: 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA and a bloated 1.75 WHIP through 30 1/3 innings, even with a solid 8.6 K/9. That’s a wide enough gap in track record to matter, especially with New York’s bullpen already stretched thin down the stretch of a lost season.

Monday’s opener set the tone for this series. Gunnar Henderson, back in form after a quiet stretch, drilled a go-ahead solo homer in the eighth inning off Dedniel Nunez — his 23rd of the year and his first since a two-homer game against Oakland on August 30 — to seal a 2-1 win and formally end the Mets’ season. Henderson is hitting just .223 but still has 58 RBI and a .710 OPS, production the Orioles have leaned on all year.

Pete Alonso went 0-for-3 with a walk in his first game back at Citi Field since leaving as a franchise icon — and the Orioles won anyway.

Other Game Picks

• Padres vs. Rockies Prediction: San Diego’s Wild Card Push Continues at Coors Field
• Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction: Logan Henderson Looks to Keep Milwaukee Rolling at PNC Park
• Braves vs. Cubs Prediction: Wild Card Race Adds Weight to Wrigley Finale
• Yankees vs. Twins Prediction: Can New York Complete the Sweep at Target Field?

That’s the story worth watching Wednesday, too. Alonso, who hit a team-record 264 homers over seven seasons in Queens before signing a five-year, $155 million deal with Baltimore last winter, is still looking for his signature moment against his old team. He’s got 35 homers and a .496 slugging mark on the year, and Citi Field’s short porch in right field is still very much his kind of ballpark, eliminated Mets or not.

Francisco Lindor (20 HR, .440 SLG) and Juan Soto (25 HR, .392 OBP) give New York’s lineup real thump even in a lost year, and Brandon Nimmo-less or not, this offense can still cash the over on a given night. But run prevention has been the bigger issue in Queens all season, and Stock walking 4.5 per nine is not the profile you want against a Baltimore lineup that also features Coby Mayo’s 23 homers from the DH spot. Bettors weighing the total tonight can check current lines on our FanDuel Promo Code page before first pitch.

Prediction and Best Bet

Baltimore’s postseason math is nearly impossible, but “nearly impossible” teams playing must-win baseball against an eliminated opponent is a profitable spot more often than the moneyline price suggests. The Orioles have the better starter, the hotter recent form in this series, and a lineup with more swing-and-miss thump than New York on paper. Between the sportsbookwire crew calling for Orioles 6, Mets 4, and the pitching matchup favoring Bassitt over Stock, there’s real value on Baltimore getting plus money on the road.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Orioles 6, Mets 4
2. Best Bet: Orioles on the moneyline

Take the plus money — Baltimore has the better arm on the mound and a lineup that just proved it can beat New York without needing Alonso to do it.