Yankees vs. Twins Prediction: Will Warren’s Command Exploits a Leaky Minnesota Bullpen

The Yankees have the AL East mostly wrapped up and a wild-card cushion to match, but Aaron Boone’s lineup is banged up enough that a fading Twins team smells opportunity at Target Field.

Quick take:

• Pick: Yankees moneyline
• Why: New York’s rotation and bullpen have been elite over the last 10 games while Minnesota’s pitching staff is bleeding home runs
• The number to watch: Twins pitchers have allowed 16 home runs over their last 10 games

New York rolls into Minneapolis at 86-63, sitting comfortably as the top AL Wild Card team with a double-digit cushion in that race and riding a modest winning streak. The Twins, meanwhile, are buried at 70-79, already eliminated from any real playoff math and playing out the string in front of a home crowd that’s mostly turned its attention to football season. This is the kind of late-September mismatch where the standings tell almost the whole story before first pitch.

Minnesota did just take three of four from Cleveland over the weekend, so this isn’t a team that’s simply rolling over — but the roster damage on both sides is significant, and the Yankees are dealing with theirs far better.

Why Minnesota Is Still Live on the Number

Books have opened this one with New York a modest favorite — right around -138 on the moneyline with Minnesota back at +118 — and a run line of Yankees -1.5 that’s drawing plenty of two-way traffic. Bettors shopping for the best number on this one should check a DraftKings promo code before locking in a side. The total sits at 8.5, and given how both bullpens have trended in September, the over has some appeal. The Yankees are only laying a run and a half on the road against a last-place team, which tells you the market still respects a Twins offense that has enough thump — Josh Bell has quietly driven in 87 runs this season — to keep games from getting out of hand early.

Warren’s Command Against a Leaky Twins Staff

Will Warren gets the ball for New York and has been one of the more underrated arms in the league down the stretch. He’s 10-6 with a 4.05 ERA and 141 strikeouts in 142 1/3 innings, and in his last outing against Colorado he worked six innings and allowed just one earned run. Zoom out further and the Yankees pitching staff as a whole has allowed an ERA of just 3.00 over its last 10 games — that’s the kind of form that buries a lineup missing key pieces.

Dean Kremer starts for Minnesota and has struggled to find consistency, sitting at 3-5 with a 5.65 ERA. He was serviceable in his last start against Detroit, allowing two earned runs in five innings, but the bigger issue is what’s happening around him. Minnesota’s bullpen has been a mess, and the staff’s collective 5.76 ERA over the last 10 games has coincided with 16 home runs surrendered in that stretch — a number that should make anyone betting the total think twice about laying the under.

Twins pitching has allowed 16 home runs over its last 10 games.

That kind of long-ball vulnerability matters against a Yankees lineup that, even without Giancarlo Stanton for the year and without Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham right now, still runs Aaron Judge out there every night. New York has managed to win consistently anyway, evidence that the pitching and defense have carried this team as much as the bats down the stretch. Judge remains a threat to change a game with one swing regardless of who’s missing around him, and a Twins staff already prone to the long ball has to be careful not to feed him a mistake in the middle of the plate.

It’s also worth noting how differently these two rosters have trended through September. New York has treated the IL moves as a next-man-up exercise, plugging holes with pitching depth and still posting elite run prevention. Minnesota’s losses, by contrast, have hit the middle of a rotation that was already thin, and it shows in a bullpen ERA that’s ballooned as the calendar has turned. Depth matters more in September than almost any other month, and right now that gap heavily favors the Yankees.

Injuries do complicate things somewhat. Chisholm (thumb) and Grisham (hamstring) are both on the 10-day IL, and New York is already without Stanton, Clarke Schmidt, Kervin Castro, Fernando Cruz and Ryan Weathers in various long-term capacities. But even a depleted Yankees roster has more firepower and far better pitching depth than a Twins team also missing Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis is day-to-day, and a rotation gutted by long-term arm injuries to Pablo López, Mick Abel and David Festa.

Prediction and Best Bet

This lines up as a classic buyer’s-market spot: a good team playing out a near-meaningless week against a bad team that’s shown just enough life to keep the number honest. Warren’s recent command and New York’s sub-3.00 team ERA over its last 10 games should be enough to control this one even on the road, especially with Minnesota trotting out a rotation piece who’s allowed a 5.65 ERA on the year.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Yankees 6, Twins 3
2. Best Bet: Yankees on the moneyline

Fade Minnesota’s shaky bullpen and lean on New York’s pitching edge — it’s the safer side of a game the Yankees have no business losing.