Dodgers vs. Reds Prediction: Skubal Locks Down Cincinnati Again on September 14

The Dodgers just spent three days in Los Angeles proving they own this matchup, and now they get to do it again on the Reds’ own turf.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers -1.5
• Why: Tarik Skubal has quietly turned into a different pitcher over his last four starts, and Cincinnati’s lineup has no answer for him
• The number to watch: Skubal’s 2.37 ERA over his last three outings against a Reds offense hitting .470 as a team over its last 10 games

Los Angeles rolls into Great American Ball Park at 90-59, sitting atop the NL West and fresh off a three-game sweep of these same Reds at Dodger Stadium earlier this month. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 70-79 and 22.5 games back in the NL Central, playing out the string with one eye already on next season. This is the fourth meeting between these two clubs in barely a week, and the Dodgers have won every single one of the first three.

Why Vegas Isn’t Buying a Reds Upset

Books have installed Los Angeles as a heavy favorite, with moneyline prices ranging from -210 to -225 depending on the book and the run line sitting at -1.5 around -124 to -130. The total is hovering near 8 to 8.5 runs, reflecting two lineups capable of scoring in bunches but a pitching mismatch that tilts everything toward the Dodgers cashing comfortably. The -1.5 number actually represents better value than the straight moneyline here — paying -225 for a Dodgers win is a steep price when the spread captures most of the same outcomes at a fraction of the cost.

Skubal Has Found His Groove Just in Time

Tarik Skubal, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, arrived from Detroit at the August 3 trade deadline in a deal that sent Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith the other way, and for a while the results didn’t match the pedigree — he was just 1-2 in his first six Dodgers starts despite a respectable ERA. That’s changed fast. Over his last four outings he’s found another level, working into the eighth inning against these same Reds on September 9 and allowing just two runs on four hits with five strikeouts across 7 1/3 innings. For the season, spanning his time in Detroit and Los Angeles, Skubal is 9-7 with a 2.84 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and 164 strikeouts against just 24 walks over 139 2/3 innings.

Nick Lodolo draws the ball for Cincinnati, and the matchup on paper is lopsided. The Los Angeles-area native is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA and a bloated 1.53 WHIP, and his last three starts have been even shakier at a 5.52 ERA. He’s faced the Dodgers three times now dating back to last season and still hasn’t beaten them, most recently allowing three runs in that September 8 loss.

Elly De La Cruz has homered in four straight games and is hitting .455 since August 22 — and none of it has translated into a single Reds win over the Dodgers this month.

Other Game Picks

• White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction: Cleveland’s Mound Edge Looms Large in AL Central Showdown
• Padres vs. Rockies Prediction: Can San Diego’s Pitching Edge Hold Up at Coors Field?
• Braves vs. Cubs Prediction: Chicago’s Elite Offense Meets a Shaky López at Wrigley
• Yankees vs. Twins Prediction: Will Warren’s Command Exploits a Leaky Minnesota Bullpen

That’s the whole story of this series. De La Cruz has been an absolute terror at the plate, crushing a 444-foot home run off Skubal on September 9 that stands as the longest ball hit at Dodger Stadium all season. He’s a legitimate problem for any pitcher. But Cincinnati’s supporting cast — outside of Eugenio Suarez and a streaky lineup — hasn’t given him enough help, and the Reds’ bullpen has been the bigger issue in this series, unable to hold leads or keep games within reach once the middle innings arrive.

Los Angeles isn’t operating at full strength either. Shohei Ohtani has been in and out of the lineup with lingering left knee and right biceps discomfort, and the Dodgers have gone with Freddie Freeman at DH on nights he sits. It hasn’t mattered. Teoscar Hernandez has been the one carrying the offense lately, hitting .484 over his last nine games, and Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker give this lineup enough thump to overcome a night off from its biggest star. If you’re weighing where to place a wager on this series, a DraftKings promo code is worth checking before first pitch given how the number could still move.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Dodgers have already won this season series 3-0 against Cincinnati this month, and nothing about Monday’s pitching matchup suggests that changes. Skubal is trending toward his ace form right as the Reds’ rotation depth thins out down the stretch, and Los Angeles has the deeper, more dangerous lineup even without Ohtani at full health.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 6, Reds 3
2. Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5

Take the run line over the moneyline here — you get the same likely outcome at a far better price.