3 MLB Batter Props to Back on September 13: Crow-Armstrong, Alonso, and Judge Cash In

Saturday’s slate is loaded with thump, and three of the league’s most reliable power bats are staring down matchups that scream “bet the barrel.” From a Wrigley Field launching pad to a Subway Series total-bases number that’s been beating itself all series, these are the batter props worth attacking today.

Each of these three angles is backed by real, current-season production against exactly this kind of matchup — not a hunch, a pattern. Here’s the breakdown.

Pete Crow-Armstrong Owns Paul Skenes at Wrigley

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of the sport’s most explosive power sources all year, sitting at 41 home runs on the season, and his history against Paul Skenes specifically makes his home run prop (+265 to +279 depending on book) one of the sharper plays on the board. Crow-Armstrong has posted a 1.167 OPS against Skenes across their head-to-head matchups this season — video-game numbers against a pitcher who’s otherwise running a 3.83 ERA with 181 strikeouts.

Wrigley Field’s carry factor sits at 1.1 for home runs, and Crow-Armstrong has already put 14 of his 24 home runs against right-handed pitching to good use at home this year. He’s a right-handed bat with legitimate lift, and Skenes’ fastball has been handled comfortably by Crow-Armstrong in the past. When a hitter with this kind of power profile has already dominated a specific arm, the market number tends to lag behind the true probability — and that’s the case here.

Layer in that Crow-Armstrong ranks near the top of the league in expected slugging on contact, and the price starts to look generous relative to what he’s shown against this exact pitcher in this exact ballpark.

Pete Alonso’s Power Still Plays Against Toronto

Pete Alonso remains one of the most dangerous pure power bats in baseball, sitting at 34 home runs and a .494 slugging percentage this season. His home run prop is priced around +300 to +375 depending on the sportsbook, and while any individual game carries variance on a single swing, Alonso’s underlying profile — an .860 OPS and a track record of hitting the ball in the air with authority — makes him a live longshot on most nights he starts.

Alonso has already gone deep in his last series, connecting for a home run just two days ago, and his season-long barrel rate has remained consistent even as some of his batted-ball luck has fluctuated week to week. A hitter putting up a near-.500 slugging mark over a full season is going to run hot streaks, and the price on any single-game home run prop rarely fully accounts for a bat this dangerous.

The volume of contact matters here too — Alonso doesn’t chase easily, which means he’s consistently getting to pitches he can drive rather than getting himself out early in counts. That’s the profile of a hitter who can turn a plus-money home run price into real value over a full season of usage.

Aaron Judge’s Total Bases Number Is Beatable

Aaron Judge’s Total Bases Over 1.5 prop (+116) is the sharpest number on this board. The model projection here sits at 2.2 total bases, translating to roughly a 65% probability of clearing the 1.5 line — a real edge on a plus-money price. Judge has cleared 1.5 total bases in two of his last five outings against the Mets in this series, and his season-long total bases average sits comfortably above two per game.

What makes this number attractive is simple math: Judge only needs a single extra-base hit, or two singles, to clear it. Given his contact quality and the fact that he’s shown power in this exact series already, the current plus-money price undervalues how often he’s actually cleared this mark against Subway Series pitching this year.

The Yankees’ lineup construction also helps — with protection behind him, Judge is seeing pitches to hit rather than being pitched around, which keeps his total bases floor higher than the market seems to be pricing. For bettors looking for value beyond a coin-flip home run prop, this is the play with the built-in cushion.

Today’s Edge

All three of these bets lean on the same principle: recent, specific-matchup production that the market hasn’t fully priced in. Bettors chasing more angles beyond player props can check a Expected Value (EV) Calculator to see how these prices stack up against true win probability before locking in a slate.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run — Yes (+265 to +279)
• Pete Alonso Home Run — Yes (+300 to +375)
• Aaron Judge Total Bases Over 1.5 (+116)

Three power bats, three favorable matchups — this is the kind of slate where betting the barrel pays off.