Dodgers vs. Marlins Prediction: Los Angeles Chases Division Clinch Without Ohtani

The Dodgers have won seven straight and are closing in on another NL West crown, but the version of Los Angeles that shows up at loanDepot park on Saturday will be doing it without Shohei Ohtani in the lineup.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers moneyline
• Why: Tyler Glasnow is unbeaten this season and the Marlins are missing their best starter while cratering down the stretch
• The number to watch: Miami is 3-7 in its last 10 games

Los Angeles rolls into Miami at 89-57, fresh off a 14-1 blowout of Cincinnati that trimmed the Dodgers’ magic number to clinch the division into single digits. Ohtani was placed on the 15-day injured list this week with lingering knee and biceps issues, and manager Dave Roberts doesn’t expect him to even take swings this weekend. It hasn’t slowed the Dodgers down. Freddie Freeman, who sat out the series opener with knee soreness, is expected back in the lineup Saturday, giving Los Angeles its full complement of everyday bats outside of Ohtani.

Why the Number Looks Lopsided in Miami

Sportsbooks have made the Dodgers a heavy road favorite for this one, with the moneyline sitting right around -200 and Miami priced up near +163. The run line has Los Angeles at -1.5, and the total is hovering between 7.5 and 8.5 depending on the book. That’s a steep price for a team playing without its two-way superstar, but the market is reacting to more than just names on paper — it’s reacting to form. The Marlins have dropped six of their last seven and four in a row, and Miami’s bullpen has been getting torched, posting a 6.75 ERA over the last 10 games as a team.

Glasnow’s Unbeaten Run Meets a Marlins Staff Down Its Ace

Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for Los Angeles sporting a 4-0 record and a 3.12 ERA, and he’s been especially nasty against Miami specifically — 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career starts at loanDepot park. He’ll face Tyler Phillips, who’s been solid enough for a fading Marlins club at 5-6 with a 3.51 ERA but doesn’t offer the same swing-and-miss upside; Phillips is averaging fewer strikeouts per nine than Glasnow by a wide margin. Complicating things further for Miami, ace right-hander Max Meyer — who was 9-1 with a 2.68 ERA before landing on the 15-day injured list with a neck issue — won’t factor into this series at all, a massive subtraction from an already thin rotation.

The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games.

Offensively, Miami isn’t without pulse. Jakob Marsee has been outstanding of late, hitting for a .488 on-base percentage and .583 slugging mark over his last 10 games, and Javier Sanoja has caught fire with a .415 average, two homers and six RBI in that same stretch. But it’s tough to overcome a bullpen bleeding runs at a 6.75 clip while your best starter is unavailable. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has Teoscar Hernández locked in — he’s collected 18 hits with a .595 on-base percentage and .829 slugging over his last 10 games, more than picking up the offensive slack left behind by Ohtani’s absence at designated hitter.

That kind of individual form matters in a series where the Dodgers are trying to close out a division and Miami is playing out the string with nothing but pride on the line.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Dodgers have the far better pitcher on the mound, the hotter recent form, and a lineup deep enough to survive Ohtani’s absence for a weekend. Miami’s discipline problems on the mound and a rotation missing its top arm make this a tough spot for the Marlins to snap their skid, even at home.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 6, Marlins 3
2. Best Bet: Dodgers on the moneyline

Backing Glasnow and a Dodgers offense that hasn’t missed a beat is the safer side of this number, even without the biggest name in the lineup.