3 MLB Batter Props to Back Today: Ben Rice, Jackson Chourio, and Tommy Edman

The MLB slate is thinning out as September grinds toward the finish line, but the prop markets are still overflowing with value for anyone willing to dig into the matchup data instead of just betting the name on the jersey. Three batters stand out tonight once you strip away the noise and look at what’s actually happening in the numbers: recent form, career splits, and pitcher performance that’s trending the wrong way for the guy on the mound.

These aren’t gut-feeling picks. Each one is built on a specific statistical edge — a hot streak that’s still climbing, a career-long dominance over a particular arm, or a pitcher bleeding hard contact in a hitter’s park. Here’s where the smart money should be looking.

Ben Rice Over 1.5 Total Bases

Ben Rice has quietly become one of the most productive hitters in the American League, and betting against his total-base floor right now is a losing proposition. Rice is sitting on 36 home runs this season with an .878 OPS, ranking third in the AL in homers and fourth in OPS — video-game numbers for a player who was fighting for at-bats a year ago. He’s not cooling off, either. His last-seven-day OPS sits at an absurd 1.071, and even stretched out over his last 14 games he’s still slugging his way to a .928-plus OPS with eight extra-base hits in that window.

The matchup only sweetens the pot. Rice owns a .929 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and tonight’s Yankees opponent is expected to send out a pitcher carrying a 6.19 ERA to the mound in a venue that plays up for home runs — a park factor north of 1.15 for the long ball. A hitter with Rice’s current bat speed and pull-side pop against a struggling arm in a hitter-friendly setup is about as clean an Over 1.5 total bases lean as this slate offers. One extra-base hit clears it outright, and Rice has been collecting those at an elite clip all month.

Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits

Jackson Chourio has built a genuine problem for opposing left-handers, and David Peterson specifically has been a nightmare matchup for him for years. Across his career, Chourio is hitting .455 with a 1.591 OPS against Peterson, going 5-for-11 with two home runs in 12 career plate appearances — a small sample, sure, but one that lines up perfectly with how Chourio has performed against lefties generally and against Peterson in particular in 2026, where he’s carrying a 2.167 OPS in their more recent meetings.

Peterson, for his part, has been trending in the wrong direction. He was tagged for six earned runs in just 3.2 innings in a recent outing, a start that reinforced concerns about his command against contact-oriented, aggressive righty bats — exactly Chourio’s profile. Chourio is a career .281 hitter this season with 21 home runs and 61 RBI, and he’s been especially dangerous in multi-hit spots against pitchers who leave the ball up in the zone, which has been Peterson’s calling card of late. Betting the Over on 1.5 hits here isn’t a leap of faith — it’s following a pattern that’s shown up every single time these two have squared off.

Tommy Edman Over 0.5 Hits

Tommy Edman’s career numbers against Cincinnati pitching read like a cheat code, and the trend line only makes the pick more attractive. Against Nick Lodolo specifically, Edman has hit .429 with a 1.286 OPS across seven career plate appearances, and the trajectory of that matchup has only gotten more lopsided in Edman’s favor as the years have gone on — he posted an .800 OPS against Lodolo back in 2022 and has rocketed all the way up to a 2.500 OPS in more recent looks. That’s not variance; that’s a hitter who has simply figured out how to time a specific pitcher’s stuff.

With the Reds and Dodgers squaring off at Dodger Stadium, Edman’s switch-hitting versatility and contact-first approach give him a wide margin for error on a single-hit prop. He’s a career .270-plus hitter who rarely goes silent for a full game, and his ability to work both sides of the plate neutralizes whatever platoon-based bullpen strategy Cincinnati tries to deploy late. A hitter with this much recorded success against this specific opponent, in this ballpark, at this price for Over 0.5 hits, is exactly the kind of low-risk anchor a props card needs.

Lock These In

All three of these picks are built the same way — recent performance data stacked directly on top of favorable matchup history, with none of the guesswork that usually plagues single-game player props. Check your book for the latest lines before you fire, since numbers can shift closer to first pitch, and always shop around — a service like the Odds and Probability Calculator can help confirm you’re getting fair value before locking anything in.

• Ben Rice Over 1.5 Total Bases (check your book)
• Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Hits (check your book)
• Tommy Edman Over 0.5 Hits (check your book)

Each of these bats is riding real form against real weaknesses — that’s the combination that turns a prop bet into a smart bet.