Reds vs. Dodgers Prediction: Can Elly De La Cruz Keep This Close on the Road?

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball this month and a rotation stacked with aces; the Reds are playing out the string with a lineup that can still do real damage on any given night.

Quick take:

• Pick: Dodgers -1.5
• Why: Tarik Skubal on the mound against a Reds rotation piece who’s allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts
• The number to watch: Elly De La Cruz is 10-for-20 with two homers over his last five games — the one Reds bat that can make this ugly for LA in a hurry

Los Angeles heads into Tuesday night at 87-57, sitting on top of the NL West and riding a stretch that’s seen them go 5-2 in September with a +152 run differential on the year, tops in baseball. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 69-75, sitting 19.5 games back in the NL Central and 7.5 out of the final Wild Card spot — the postseason math doesn’t work anymore, but that hasn’t stopped the Reds from playing loose baseball down the stretch, including a 12-8 shootout win over Milwaukee on Sunday.

This is the second game of the series, and it’s a mismatch on paper in almost every meaningful way except one: Cincinnati’s lineup has more thump in it than a fading team’s record usually suggests.

Why Vegas Has This Nowhere Close

The oddsmakers see this about as lopsided as a September game between a division leader and a team playing for pride can look. Los Angeles opened as roughly a -325 to -335 favorite on the moneyline, with Cincinnati sitting out at +270, and the run line has the Dodgers at -1.5 (-144 to -150) against the Reds’ +1.5. The total sits at 8.5, with the market split close to even on whether it goes over or under.

Part of that gap is the pitching matchup. Tarik Skubal takes the ball for LA sporting an 8-7 record and a 2.86 ERA, chasing his ninth win of the season. Nick Lodolo counters for Cincinnati at 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.518 WHIP — a rough season for a pitcher who’s shown flashes of being a legitimate mid-rotation arm in years past. That gap alone is doing a lot of the market’s heavy lifting, and bettors looking to shop the number with a DraftKings promo code will find the run line offering better value than the moneyline here.

The Lineup That Could Make This Interesting

Los Angeles isn’t at full strength. Shohei Ohtani has been in and out of the lineup managing lingering physical issues and is unlikely to pitch again this season, while the Dodgers’ rotation depth has thinned considerably — Eric Lauer and Roki Sasaki are both on the injured list, leaving Los Angeles leaning on its projected postseason four of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to soak up the bulk of the remaining starts. Catcher Dalton Rushing is also shut down for the year behind the plate after re-aggravating his elbow, and outfielder Andy Pages is out with a fractured hand.

Elly De La Cruz has hit safely in five straight games to open September, going 10-for-20 with two home runs, six RBI and five runs scored over that stretch.

That’s the wrinkle that keeps this from being a total laugher. De La Cruz is slashing .280/.360/.492 on the season with 23 homers, 66 RBI and 24 stolen bases, and he’s been the hottest hitter in either dugout over the last week. Eugenio Suarez has been a steady complementary bat all year with 21 home runs of his own, and with Ke’Bryan Hayes back from a groin issue and Sal Stewart producing (31 homers on the year at first base), Cincinnati’s lineup has more pieces capable of hurting a shaky bullpen than its record lets on.

Still, the Reds are without Hunter Greene (season-ending Tommy John surgery) and Spencer Steer (also done for the year), which has stripped some thump and rotation stability from an already inconsistent roster. Against a Dodgers offense that’s mashed its way to a league-leading run differential, the margin for error on the mound is razor thin for Lodolo.

Prediction and Best Bet

Skubal has been arguably the best pitcher on this roster not named Yamamoto for two months, and the Dodgers’ lineup — even missing Ohtani and Pages — has enough thump from the top of the order to build an early lead and let the bullpen protect it. Cincinnati’s lone counter is hoping Lodolo has one of his better outings while De La Cruz stays hot, which is a live possibility but not the way to bet against a team playing this well at home.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Dodgers 6, Reds 3
2. Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5

Fade the Reds’ offense at your own risk with De La Cruz this hot, but the run-line value with LA’s rotation edge is too clean to pass up.