Brewers vs. Mets Prediction: Misiorowski’s Dominance Meets a Depleted Mets Lineup

Jacob Misiorowski has been nearly unhittable all season, and he’s walking into a Mets lineup that just lost its two best hitters to injury — this is about as lopsided a pitching matchup as you’ll find in late August.

Quick take:

• Pick: Brewers moneyline
• Why: Misiorowski’s 1.68 ERA against a Mets lineup without Juan Soto and Bo Bichette is too much of an edge to fade
• The number to watch: Opponents are hitting just .152 against Misiorowski this season

Milwaukee rolls into Citi Field at 82-51, comfortably in first place in the NL Central and holding the best record in the National League. New York, meanwhile, sits at 60-73, dead last in the NL East and 11.5 games out of a wild card spot with barely a month left to salvage anything. This is the finale of a three-game set the Brewers largely controlled, and the pitching matchup on the mound Thursday night tilts things even further in Milwaukee’s favor.

The two clubs split the opening games of the series. The Mets stole Game 1 in extras, 3-2, on Tuesday. Milwaukee answered emphatically on Wednesday, cruising to an 8-1 win behind a lineup that’s been one of the best in baseball all year.

Why Vegas Isn’t Buying a Mets Upset

Books have the Brewers priced around -220 on the moneyline with a -1.5 run line hovering near even money, and the total sits at 7.5. That’s a significant number, but given the pitching matchup, it’s arguably not big enough. Misiorowski draws Sean Manaea, and the gap between the two starters’ underlying numbers is stark enough that sharp money has leaned toward Milwaukee since the lines opened.

Misiorowski’s Ceiling Meets a Depleted Mets Lineup

Misiorowski enters at 13-5 with a 1.68 ERA, a microscopic 0.759 WHIP, and 216 strikeouts in just 145 innings — a strikeout rate north of 13 per nine that ranks among the best in the league. He’s been the Brewers’ ace-caliber breakout arm all season, and he’ll be missing a Mets lineup that’s without Juan Soto (calf strain) and now Bo Bichette, who was pulled Wednesday with a foot contusion after fouling a ball off it. Add in Mark Vientos and Jorge Polanco already sidelined, and New York is trotting out a shell of its intended order.

Manaea, by contrast, has struggled to find consistency, sitting at 4-5 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.308 WHIP. He’s a capable lefty on his best nights, but he doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff to match Misiorowski’s, and against a Brewers offense that ranks among the league’s best in runs scored — paced by Jackson Chourio’s .458 slugging mark and Brice Turang’s 16 home runs — that’s a tough ask.

Opponents are batting just .152 against Jacob Misiorowski this season.

That number alone tells the story. A Mets lineup already missing its two most dangerous bats now has to solve a pitcher nobody else in baseball has solved consistently either. New York’s offense ranks 24th in batting average as a team, and stripping out Soto and Bichette only makes an already thin group thinner.

Milwaukee’s bullpen has also been a quiet strength, and while the Brewers dropped Game 1 of this series, the response in Game 2 showed the offense clicking against a Mets pitching staff that’s been stretched thin by injuries of its own — Devin Williams and Cionel Pérez are both out, and Kodai Senga has been unplayable with a 7.79 ERA.

Prediction and Best Bet

Milwaukee’s pitching advantage, combined with New York’s compromised lineup, points toward another comfortable night for the Brewers. Misiorowski should carry the load deep into this one, and the Brewers’ offense has enough juice to make it a multi-run margin.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Brewers 6, Mets 2
2. Best Bet: Brewers on the moneyline

With Misiorowski on the mound against a lineup missing its top two hitters, this is one of the more lopsided matchups on the MLB slate Thursday night — bettors looking for a safer play might also check the latest DraftKings promo code before placing anything on this game.