Pirates vs. Padres Prediction: Can Skenes Solve His Slump in San Diego?

Paul Skenes has struggled over his last 16 starts and Fernando Tatis Jr. is red-hot. Our Pirates-Padres prediction, odds breakdown and best bet for August 25.

Jaden Vann August 25, 2026

Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting like it’s October and Paul Skenes is fighting through the worst stretch of his career — that collision alone makes Petco Park worth watching Tuesday night.

Quick take:
Pick: Padres +1.5
Why: San Diego’s lineup is red-hot and Skenes has a 5.00 ERA over his last 16 starts
The number to watch: Tatis has 12 home runs since the All-Star break, tied for the MLB lead

Pittsburgh comes into San Diego at 63-69, buried 18.5 games back in the NL Central and losers of three straight. The Padres, at 71-60 and second in the NL West behind the Dodgers, have won three in a row and gone 7-3 over their last 10. This is the middle game of a three-game set at Petco Park, and while the Pirates aren’t playing for much beyond pride down the stretch, San Diego is still very much alive in the wild-card chase.

Why the Market Isn’t Buying the Ace

Books have this one closer than the recent form would suggest. Paul Skenes and the Pirates are actually favored on the run line at -1.5 (+164), while the moneyline has San Diego as a modest -116 favorite and Pittsburgh right around even money. The total sits at 7.5. That’s a name-brand discount for Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, but the Pirates are just 3-13 in his last 16 starts and the market knows it.

Skenes Isn’t the Same Pitcher Right Now

Skenes is 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 139 innings this season — respectable production for most starters, but a significant step back from the pitcher who won the Cy Young a year ago. Dig into his last 16 outings and the picture gets uglier: a 5.00 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an average of roughly 5⅓ innings per start. He was pulled after just 65 pitches in his most recent outing in Miami, and Pittsburgh actually pushed his next start back to give him extra rest. Manager Don Kelly has been managing him carefully, which tells you the club is aware something’s off even if the strikeout numbers (171 in 139 innings) still look fine on paper.

Michael King gives San Diego a real answer on the mound. He’s 8-9 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across 149 innings, with 128 strikeouts against 58 walks. King and the Padres are 9-17 against the spread in his starts this season, which is a quirky number for a pitcher with an ERA this good — it suggests San Diego’s offense has occasionally left him without support, not that he’s been the problem.

Tatis has homered 12 times since the All-Star break, tied for the most in the majors.
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That’s the number driving this game. Tatis went 4-for-5 with two homers in Sunday’s sweep-completing win over Minnesota and is now hitting .290 with an .807 OPS on the year. Oneil Cruz gives Pittsburgh its own thunder — he’s slashing around .264 with 15 homers and 22 stolen bases, and he’s been scorching over his last 15 games at a .310 clip with four homers. But Cruz working off the injured list and San Diego’s lineup being fully rolling right now are two very different situations.

Health, Depth and the Head-to-Head Trend

San Diego isn’t at full strength — Joe Musgrove is working back from Tommy John surgery, Nick Pivetta remains out with a flexor issue, and Casey Mize is day-to-day after spraining his ankle on the dugout steps last weekend. None of that touches King’s turn in the rotation, though, and the lineup hasn’t missed a beat, going 7-3 in its last 10 games regardless. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has dropped three straight and has been on the wrong end of this particular matchup for years — the Pirates are just 2-8 against San Diego over their last 10 meetings dating back to 2024.

That trend matters here. When the roles are reversed — a shakier version of an ace against a hot lineup, on the road, with recent head-to-head history working against you — the smart states of the number favor discipline over the brand name on the mound.

Prediction and Best Bet

San Diego’s depth and recent form outweigh Pittsburgh’s name-value starter here. Expect King to work efficiently into the sixth or seventh while Skenes again struggles to finish five clean innings, and expect Tatis and company to make the Pirates pay for it. Bettors weighing their options should check the FanDuel Promo Code before placing anything on this total.