3 MLB Batter Props to Back on Sunday: Arraez, Stott RBI Plays and Guerrero Jr. Total Bases

The Phillies and Blue Jays both have juicy batter prop angles on the board Sunday, and the numbers back up fading the books on all three. Two Philadelphia bats face a St. Louis right-hander who’s been hittable in the RBI department, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets a lefty he’s owned for years. This is the kind of slate where analytics-driven props actually line up with real matchup history instead of just gut feel.

Here’s why these three deserve a spot on your card.

Luis Arraez RBI Over 0.5 (+165)

Arraez enters Sunday’s 1:35 p.m. matchup with St. Louis riding a hot week at the plate, going 3-for-5 with a double in Friday’s win over the Cardinals. He’s carrying a .322 average with 54 RBI on the season, and the projection model has him at 1.0 expected RBI with a 71% cover rate on this Over — one of the stronger analytical edges on the board today.

The matchup context matters here. Kyle Leahy has already faced this Phillies lineup this season and allowed a run on six hits over five innings in that outing, with Arraez himself notching an RBI single in the game. Arraez doesn’t chase, doesn’t strike out (just 2 punchouts across his last several games), and puts the ball in play at an elite rate — exactly the batted-ball profile that turns into cheap RBI when Bryson Stott and Trea Turner are reaching base in front of him.

At +165, the payout is generous for what the model projects as a coin-flip-plus outcome. Arraez has driven in a run in three of his last six games and gets a Cardinals pitching staff that’s been vulnerable in the middle innings.

Bryson Stott RBI Over 0.5 (+190)

Stott gets the same 1:35 p.m. window against Leahy, and while his projection (0.8 FTA, 65% cover) is a touch lower than Arraez’s, the price more than compensates. Stott has been a steady presence in the Phillies’ order all year, batting .266 with pop off the bench of the lineup that Leahy will have to navigate around Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

The lefty-swinging Stott has had success working counts deep against right-handers, and Leahy’s tendency to leave pitches over the plate in the strike zone gives him chances to drive in a run via extra-base hit rather than needing a seeing-eye single. In the most recent head-to-head, the Phillies plated four runs off Leahy’s bullpen support in that same fifth-inning stretch — the kind of chaotic middle-inning sequence that turns marginal RBI props into free money.

At +190, this is priced like a longer shot than the model says it should be. Anyone building a same-game correlation with Arraez should like the way these two bats stack against the same starter.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases Over 1.5

This is the sharpest matchup-based angle of the day. Guerrero Jr. is batting .263 with 46 RBI this season, but the number that matters is his career history against Carlos Rodón — he’s absolutely owned the Yankees lefty, and oddsmakers know it. Sportsbooks have consistently priced Guerrero’s total bases prop against Rodón with plus-money value all season, and today’s 1:35 p.m. first pitch is no exception.

Guerrero’s total bases number gets a lift from his extra-base pop — he’s already got 19 doubles and 7 home runs on the year, meaning even a single well-struck ball against a pitcher he sees well can clear this line by itself. Rodón sits at a respectable 3.22 ERA overall, but his track record against Guerrero specifically has been the exception to that success, and that specific-matchup data is exactly the kind of edge sharp bettors look to exploit on sportsbooks before the number adjusts.

Toronto’s lineup construction also helps — Guerrero hits in the heart of the order and should see plenty of pitches in the zone as Rodón works around the Blue Jays’ other threats.

Today’s Edge

All three of these props lean on the same principle: recent form plus a specific, exploitable matchup. Here’s the card to build around.

• Luis Arraez RBI Over 0.5 (+165)
• Bryson Stott RBI Over 0.5 (+190)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases Over 1.5

Two Phillies bats against a hittable Cardinals arm and a Blue Jays slugger with a documented history against his Sunday opponent — this is as clean a batter-props card as you’ll find on the board today. Check your book for final odds before locking anything in.