Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction: St. Louis Chases Wild Card Spot at Great American Ball Park (August 20, 2026)

St. Louis is fighting for its playoff life, and the Reds have already shown twice this week they can spoil that fight in Cincinnati.

Quick take:

• Pick: Cardinals -1.5
• Why: Michael McGreevy has dominated this exact matchup and St. Louis’s bullpen has been nearly untouchable over the last 10 games
• The number to watch: McGreevy’s 1.42 ERA in three career starts against Cincinnati

The Cardinals (65-62) sit 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race, and every game in this five-game set at Great American Ball Park carries real weight. The Reds (60-66) have nothing left to play for beyond spoiler duty, sitting 17 games back in the NL Central, but they’ve already taken one game off St. Louis this week and clearly aren’t just rolling over. This finale wraps a series St. Louis has controlled, and a sweep-avoiding split isn’t enough for a club chasing a wild card spot with six weeks left.

Why the Market Still Trusts St. Louis on the Road

Oddsmakers have St. Louis favored at close to -117 on the moneyline with a run line around -1.5, and the total sits at 9. That’s a notably shorter line than you’d expect for a team that’s actually lost the run differential battle in this series — the market is pricing in St. Louis’s superior starting pitching and its red-hot bullpen more than raw scoreboard results from the last few days. The total near 9 suggests bettors expect Cincinnati’s lineup, which has produced 12 home runs against its own pitching staff over the last 10 games, to at least put runs on the board against a Cardinals staff that’s been stingy all series.

McGreevy’s Cincinnati Numbers Are Hard to Ignore

Michael McGreevy takes the ball for St. Louis carrying a 3.48 ERA and 91 strikeouts across 132.1 innings on the season, and he’s been especially sharp lately — six shutout innings on five hits in his last outing against the Cubs. Against the Reds specifically, McGreevy is 2-0 with a minuscule 1.42 ERA over three career starts, and he beat Cincinnati back on June 7 in this same season series. Brady Singer counters for the Reds at 5-11 with a 4.66 ERA, and while he tossed six respectable innings against Miami last time out, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has posted a 4.45 ERA over its last 10 games — nearly two full runs worse than what St. Louis’s arms have allowed in that same stretch.

St. Louis has actually won this season series 7-4 heading into today, including a 3-0 shutout in the series opener on August 18 behind Ken Leahy and a 2-1 nail-biter the day before that saw four Cardinals relievers combine for perfect innings. Alec Burleson has been at the center of that offense, hitting .291 with his bat delivering a crucial two-run double in that August 17 win — exactly the kind of situational hitting St. Louis will need against a Reds bullpen that’s been homer-prone lately.

Cardinals pitching has allowed just seven home runs and posted a 2.45 ERA over its last 10 games — nearly half of Cincinnati’s staff ERA over the same stretch.

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That gap matters against a Reds lineup anchored by Elly De La Cruz and a retooling infield around Sal Stewart and Eugenio Suarez. It’s a lineup capable of scoring in bunches, but St. Louis’s recent bullpen form suggests they’re built to contain exactly that kind of outburst. The Cardinals also enter on a mini-surge, having won 7 of their last 10 games and taken 10 of 14 dating back to mid-August, while chasing down Philadelphia and San Diego for the final wild card spots.

Fans tracking the value on this game can check the DraftKings Promo Code for this series before first pitch.

Prediction and Best Bet

St. Louis has the sharper starter, the healthier bullpen, and a legitimate playoff incentive that Cincinnati simply doesn’t share right now. McGreevy’s track record in this specific matchup, paired with a Cardinals pitching staff that’s been dramatically better than Cincinnati’s over the last 10 games, points to another St. Louis win to close out this series.

Sat, Sep 12 • 7:11 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Cincinnati Reds	+1.5 (-140)	+160	O 8.5 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers	-1.5 (109)	-190	U 8.5 (-115)

The pick:

1. Prediction: Cardinals 5, Reds 2
2. Best Bet: Cardinals -1.5

McGreevy’s history against Cincinnati combined with St. Louis’s playoff urgency makes the run line the smart way to back the favorite here.