Braves vs. Twins Prediction: Can Martín Pérez’s Scoreless Streak Survive Target Field?

Martín Pérez brings a 16-inning scoreless streak into Minneapolis as the Braves look to take down a slumping Twins club on Aug. 17. Our pick and best bet.

Adam Hutchinson August 17, 2026

Martín Pérez hasn’t allowed a run in 16 straight innings, and now he has to do it 1,100 miles from Truist Park against a Twins lineup that’s lost three in a row.

Quick take:
Pick: Braves -1.5
Why: Atlanta’s bullpen-thinned rotation still has its best arm on the mound against a fading Minnesota club that can’t hit right now
The number to watch: Pérez’s 2.02 home ERA — but tonight he’s on the road, where that number balloons to 4.30

The Braves roll into Target Field at 74-50, comfortably perched atop the NL East and fresh off a series win over Arizona that included Matt Olson’s go-ahead homer Sunday — his 36th of the year and an MLB-leading 66th extra-base hit. The Twins, meanwhile, are stuck at 60-65, sitting third in the AL Central and six games back in a race that’s basically slipped away. Minnesota dropped all three games to Philadelphia over the weekend, getting outscored 23-11 in the process.

Why Vegas Still Likes Atlanta on the Road

Oddsmakers have the Braves as road favorites at -122 to -130 on the moneyline, with Minnesota sitting at +104 to +109 depending on the book. The spread has Atlanta at -1.5 (+126 to +134) and the Twins at +1.5 (-155 to -162), while the total sits at 9 runs. That’s a lot of respect for a team traveling into a division opponent’s building, and it reflects just how depleted Minnesota’s pitching staff has become. Bettors weighing the moneyline versus the run line should note the gap isn’t huge — Atlanta’s -1.5 number at plus money is arguably better value than laying the juice on the straight moneyline, especially for anyone comparing lines through a DraftKings promo code before placing a wager.

Total-wise, the over/under sitting at 9 runs feels fair given both bullpens are compromised, but Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been scoring at a rate that suggests it climbs much past 4 or 5 on its own tonight.

Pérez’s Scoreless Streak Meets a Slumping Lineup

Martín Pérez takes the ball for Atlanta sporting an 8-6 record, a 2.96 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP across 106.1 innings, and he’s been especially sharp lately — three straight scoreless starts have him carrying a 16-inning shutdown streak into Minneapolis. His raw numbers are gaudier at Truist Park (2.02 ERA), but even his road splits (4.30 ERA) would play well against a Twins offense that’s hitting just .211 as a team over its last stretch of games. Josh Bell leads Minnesota’s attack at .253 with 16 home runs and 72 RBI, and Royce Lewis has chipped in 13 homers, but neither has been enough to keep the bats afloat during this three-game skid.

Bailey Ober gets the ball for the Twins, and his season has been considerably rockier — 7-4 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 99 innings. He’s a capable arm, but Minnesota’s staff has been gutted by injuries to Joe Ryan, Pablo López, Mick Abel, David Festa, Cole Sands, and Anthony Banda, all sidelined for extended stretches. Add outfielder Austin Martin to that list after a hamstring strain in Sunday’s loss, and this is a Twins club running low on answers in both the rotation and the lineup.

Other Game Picks

Pérez has thrown 16 consecutive scoreless innings across his last three starts.

Atlanta isn’t fully healthy either — Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Robert Suárez, and Reynaldo López remain out — but the Braves have simply weathered it better. They’ve won 5 of their last 10 and just took two of three from a playoff-caliber Diamondbacks club. Ozzie Albies (20 homers) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (.350 OBP, 15 steals) give this lineup more paths to scoring than Minnesota can currently counter, and that depth matters against a Twins bullpen stretched thin by attrition.

Third baseman Brooks Lee has quietly been one of Minnesota’s more productive bats, hitting .245 with 18 homers and 66 RBI, and he’s exactly the kind of hitter who needs to carry a slumping lineup on a night like this. But leaning on one mid-order bat against a pitcher who hasn’t allowed a run since early August is a tall ask. Matt Olson’s power alone — 36 homers and a league-leading 66 extra-base hits — gives Atlanta a puncher’s chance to blow this open even if Pérez has an off night, and Mauricio Dubon has quietly hit .262 out of the bottom of the order to keep Atlanta’s lineup deep from top to bottom.

Target Field hasn’t been an offensive haven for Minnesota this month, either. The Twins have managed just a .211 team average over their last 10 games, and facing a pitcher who’s given up zero runs in his last three outings isn’t the matchup to snap out of it. Ober will need a clean outing just to keep this competitive into the sixth or seventh inning.

Prediction and Best Bet

Pérez’s road ERA is the one number that could keep this close, but a slumping Twins offense facing a pitcher on a scoreless streak isn’t a great recipe for covering a run-and-a-half. Atlanta’s deeper lineup and better recent form should be enough to control this one from the middle innings on, even away from Truist Park.