Cardinals vs. Yankees Prediction: Can St. Louis Avoid a Bronx Sweep?
The Yankees look to complete a series sweep of the Cardinals at Yankee Stadium behind Ben Rice and a red-hot lineup. Full prediction, odds breakdown, and best bet for Wednesday night.
The Yankees have already banked the first two games of this series, and now they get to close it out against a Cardinals club that’s fighting for its playoff life with a diminished rotation on the other side.
Quick take:
- Pick: Yankees -1.5
- Why: St. Louis has to trust a shakier arm in a get-right spot after dropping the first two games of the series
- The number to watch: Ben Rice is up to 31 home runs on the year
New York enters at 64-50 and sitting second in the AL East, five games back of Tampa Bay, while St. Louis is 56-58 and clinging to the fringes of the NL Central and wild card picture. The Cardinals have already dropped the first two games of this set at Yankee Stadium, including a wild 13-7 loss to open the series, and now they’re staring down a sweep in the Bronx.
Yankees fans have watched this offense carry a beat-up roster all summer. That’s the story again Wednesday night.
Why the Number Opened Where It Did
Books have New York as a decent-sized home favorite here — moneyline around -152, with the Yankees also -1.5 on the run line at plus money for St. Louis to keep it within a run. The total sits at 8.5, and given how these teams have hit lately, the over/under number reflects two lineups capable of scoring in bunches even with rotation issues on both sides.
Pallante vs. Warren, and a Cardinals Lineup Running Out of Time
Andre Pallante takes the ball for St. Louis carrying an 11-6 record and a 3.72 ERA, numbers that look solid on paper but come with an asterisk: his team has actually covered the spread in 13 of his 20 starts this season, and the Cardinals are 8-4 straight-up in his 12 outings as an underdog. That’s the case for St. Louis finding a way to hang around Wednesday even while trailing in the series.
Will Warren counters for New York at 8-5 with a 4.14 ERA, hardly dominant, but his teams have gone 11-4 this year when he’s on the mound as the favorite. The Yankees have needed exactly that kind of stability from their rotation depth this season with Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt all dealing with elbow issues at various points, and Aaron Judge still working back from a rib injury that’s kept the middle of the order thinner than New York would like.
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That’s a lot of talent to be missing for a team still comfortably above .500. Losing three rotation arms to the same type of injury in one season would sink most staffs, but New York has leaned on its bullpen depth and gotten timely length from replacement starters to stay in the thick of the AL East race. Giancarlo Stanton’s calf issue has cost the Yankees another middle-of-the-order bat for stretches of the year, which only raises the stakes on Rice’s huge season — he’s essentially been playing the role of two players in that lineup.
St. Louis, for its part, has stayed competitive despite plenty of noise around the roster all summer. The Cardinals are 24-19 at home but a more middling 28-32 on the road, and this three-game set in the Bronx has been a reminder why. Nolan Arenado remains the engine of that lineup when healthy, and the Cardinals need him producing in the middle of the order if they’re going to avoid a series sweep against a team that’s clearly the sharper club in this matchup right now.
Ben Rice has quietly turned into one of the most productive hitters in the sport, sitting at 31 home runs, 73 RBIs, and a .561 slugging percentage.
With Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both compromised for stretches this year, Rice has been the answer in the middle of the lineup, and he’s the kind of hitter who can turn a close game into a laugher in one swing. St. Louis has to be careful pitching around him, and every extra base he takes tightens the vise on a Cardinals bullpen that’s already been worked hard this series after two high-scoring games.
St. Louis is 5-5 over its last 10, treading water at a time when it needs to be gaining ground. New York has stumbled at times on the road but has been sharp at home, and closing out a series sweep against a team fighting for its season is exactly the kind of spot where a deeper, healthier-at-the-right-positions roster tends to finish the job. If St. Louis wants a jolt heading into the finale, backing an underdog moneyline number like this is a lot more appealing with the DraftKings promo code sweetening the value on a live dog.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Yankees have controlled this series from the jump, and with Pallante needing to be nearly perfect to keep the Cardinals within striking distance against a lineup that has Rice heating up in the middle of it, New York should be able to push across enough runs to cover again.
The pick:
- Prediction: Yankees 6, Cardinals 3
- Best Bet: Yankees -1.5
New York completes the sweep behind another multi-run night from the middle of its order, and St. Louis heads home from the Bronx with plenty of work left to do.