3 MLB Batter Home Run Props to Back on Wednesday: Judge, Tatis Jr., and Lindor All Priced at Plus Money

Wednesday’s slate is loaded with plus-money home run value, and three names stand out once you dig past the surface numbers: Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Francisco Lindor. Each is priced at longshot odds for reasons that don’t hold up under closer inspection — a fresh return from the injured list, a cold stretch that’s actually about to break, and a favorable split against a familiar former organization.

None of these are chalk plays. They’re all plus-money swings backed by real matchup and batted-ball data, which is exactly the kind of spot sharp bettors look for on a big slate.

Aaron Judge Is Back and Locked In Against Andre Pallante

Judge returns from the injured list priced at roughly +250 to go deep, and that number looks generous given the matchup. St. Louis right-hander Andre Pallante has been homer-prone against right-handed power all year, and Judge remains one of the most dangerous bats in baseball even coming off missed time — his exit velocity and barrel rate profile don’t erode over a short absence the way a pitcher’s command sometimes does.

The Yankees lineup is built around Judge doing damage in the middle of the order, and returning players in his mold historically don’t take long to find their timing, especially against a pitch mix like Pallante’s that lives in the zone. Getting a hitter of Judge’s caliber at +250 in a get-right spot is the kind of number that shouldn’t last if the lineup card confirms him back in his usual cleanup role.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Cold Streak Is About to Meet Ryne Nelson

Tatis hasn’t left the yard in 10 games, which is exactly why his price has ballooned to +425 for Wednesday’s matchup with Arizona’s Ryne Nelson. But drought numbers can be misleading when you check the underlying history — Tatis has posted a career .462 average against Nelson (6-for-13) dating back to their first meeting in 2023, and none of those plate appearances have needed a big sample to produce loud contact historically.

San Diego’s lineup still puts Tatis in a premium spot to see pitches to drive, and a pitcher he’s squared up repeatedly in the past is a textbook regression spot for a bat that’s simply been running cold rather than declining. At +425, the market is pricing the drought and largely ignoring the individual matchup history, which is where the value lives.

Francisco Lindor Draws Cleveland in a Get-Revenge Spot

Lindor is priced around +400 to homer against Cleveland’s Joey Cantillo, and the emotional subplot of facing a franchise he’s had success against aside, the underlying numbers support the price. Cantillo has already allowed 13 home runs across his workload this season, a rate that puts him firmly in play for opposing power bats, and Lindor remains one of the more consistent switch-hitting threats in the league from the left side, where Cantillo’s left-handed matchup splits have been an issue.

Lindor’s pull-side power plays well into Cleveland’s ballpark dimensions, and a pitcher who’s already shown he’s homer-prone this year is exactly the type of matchup that turns plus-money props into legitimate value. Books have shaded this line toward the narrative, but the batted-ball profile says the number could be even shorter.

Today’s Edge

All three of these bets lean on the same principle: don’t let a short-term storyline — a return from injury, a cold streak, a rivalry angle — distract from what the matchup data actually says. Bettors chasing value on the FanDuel promo code or shopping lines elsewhere should find all three of these props still available at plus money heading into first pitch.

• Aaron Judge HR (+250) vs. STL/Andre Pallante
• Fernando Tatis Jr. HR (+425) vs. ARI/Ryne Nelson
• Francisco Lindor HR (+400) vs. CLE/Joey Cantillo

Line shop before locking these in, since plus-money HR props can move fast once lineups are official.