Devers, Yelich, and Gonzales: 3 MLB Total Bases Props to Back on August 4

Monday’s MLB slate is loaded with total bases value once you know where to look, and three matchups stand out for hitters who have been doing damage well beyond the box score. Rafael Devers, Christian Yelich, and Nick Gonzales all carry live over-1.5-total-bases numbers on DraftKings against pitching matchups that play right into their recent form.

None of these are shots in the dark. Each pick is built on a real trend — Devers’ surging bat since the calendar flipped to August, Yelich’s consistent extra-base pop against a Pirates staff that’s given up plenty of hard contact, and Gonzales’ underrated on-base skill against a Brewers rookie making his way through the league for the first time. Here’s the breakdown on all three before first pitch.

Rafael Devers Is Heating Up Against Texas

Rafael Devers has been the driving force in the middle of the Giants’ order, and the total bases market hasn’t fully caught up. Over his last 15 games, Devers is slashing .333 with a .765 slugging percentage, seven home runs, and 17 hits — production that’s put him at 175 total bases on the season, 10th in the National League. His last seven games alone have produced six hits, a homer, and five RBI, evidence the bat is trending in exactly the right direction right now.

San Francisco hosts Texas on August 4, and Devers gets an over 1.5 total bases number sitting around +120 on DraftKings — plus money for a hitter who only needs one extra-base knock, or two singles, to cash. Given he’s collected multiple hits in a healthy share of his recent starts and is squaring up the ball as well as he has all year, that price undervalues how often he’s clearing this number lately.

Bettors tracking value spots like this one often lean on tools like the Expected Value (EV) Calculator to size up whether a plus-money total bases line is actually worth the play, and on paper, this is one of the stronger looks on the board.

Christian Yelich Keeps Doing Damage Versus Pittsburgh

Christian Yelich has quietly put together a strong season line for Milwaukee — a .243 average with six homers, 31 RBI, and six steals — and his total bases production has been steady even outside the batting average. He’s racked up 93 total bases over his last stretch of games, with 26 extra-base hits mixed in across the year, showing the pop is very much still there even when the average dips.

Milwaukee hosts Pittsburgh on August 4, and Yelich’s over 1.5 total bases sits at roughly -105 on DraftKings. That’s a short number, but it should be — Yelich has been a repeat-hit, extra-base threat all year, and a Pirates pitching staff that ranks in the bottom half of the league in hard-contact rate allowed gives him another favorable look. A double or a home run alone clears this line instantly, and Yelich has shown he can still find one of those on a given night against average-to-below-average arms.

For bettors weighing a short-priced total bases favorite like this one against the field, a quick look at the Odds and Probability Calculator can help frame just how often a play like this needs to hit to be worth laying the number.

Nick Gonzales Offers Plus Value Against Logan Henderson

Nick Gonzales has been one of the more underrated storylines in the National League this year, hitting .311 with a .762 OPS and 101 hits through his first 49 games — production that’s put him among the NL’s hit leaders. He’s shown a real ability to work the barrel across the field and has strung together stretches where the extra-base hits come in bunches, particularly against right-handed pitching, where he’s slashing .268 with the bulk of his power numbers this season.

Pittsburgh visits Milwaukee on August 4 and draws Brewers rookie right-hander Logan Henderson, still building his track record at the big-league level. Gonzales’ over 1.5 total bases sits at a plus-money +166 on DraftKings — the best price of the three plays here — for a hitter who’s cleared this number regularly all season against pitching with far more experience than Henderson currently carries. That combination of a hot bat and a plus number against a less-tested arm is exactly the kind of spot that gets overlooked on a crowded Tuesday slate.

Today’s Edge

All three of these bats are trending well beyond what their surface-level averages suggest, and the total bases market hasn’t fully priced in the recent hot streaks for Devers and Gonzales in particular. Here’s the full card:

• Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DK)
• Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 DK)
• Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Total Bases (+166 DK)

Odds are subject to change before first pitch, so check your book before locking anything in. Of the three, Gonzales’ plus-money number against a rookie arm stands out as the sharpest value on the board tonight.