Yankees vs. Cubs Prediction: Can a Judge-less Lineup Solve Imanaga at Wrigley?

The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton as they visit Wrigley Field to face a red-hot Cubs team and Shota Imanaga on Friday.

Earnest Horn July 31, 2026

The Yankees haven’t been the same team since Aaron Judge fractured a rib in late May, and Wrigley Field is a brutal place to keep proving that.

Quick take:
Pick: Cubs moneyline
Why: Chicago is healthier, hotter, and getting the far better version of a strong lefty in Shota Imanaga
The number to watch: Imanaga’s 1.10 WHIP dwarfs Will Warren’s 1.41

New York (61-48) arrives at Wrigley for the first meeting of the season between these two clubs sitting second in the AL East, but the record undersells how much has changed. Judge landed on the 60-day injured list with that rib injury suffered May 31 and, as of the latest team updates, was still working through scans before resuming baseball activities — he’s not walking through that door in Chicago. Cody Bellinger is out with a hamstring strain and Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a calf issue, meaning the middle of New York’s order has been gutted for weeks.

Chicago (62-47) is dealing with its own pitching attrition — Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Daniel Palencia and a handful of relievers have all cycled through the IL this summer — but the lineup is intact, and the Cubs have reportedly won 8 of their last 10 to hold their spot in the NL Central race.

Why the Market Isn’t Buying New York’s Price

Books have Chicago priced anywhere from -141 to -159 depending on the shop, with the Yankees sitting between +120 and +131 as the road underdog. The run line has the Cubs at -1.5 (roughly +143 to +150), and the total sits at 9 runs across every major book. That’s a fairly firm number for a Friday afternoon getaway-style series opener, and it reflects a Yankees offense that’s been scuffling — New York reportedly went 18-20 in the stretch since Judge went down, a sharp fall from the pace they were on with him healthy.

Imanaga’s Command Against a Lineup Missing Its Anchor

Shota Imanaga takes the mound for Chicago at 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 113 strikeouts over 121 innings — the WHIP in particular says he’s not handing out free baserunners, which matters against a Yankees lineup already missing its best hitter. Will Warren counters for New York at 7-5 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 102 innings, both starters chasing their eighth win of the year, but the gap in traffic allowed is the separator here.

Michael Busch has quietly been part of the class keeping Chicago afloat, hitting .239 with 11 home runs and 49 RBIs at first base, and he’s exactly the kind of complementary bat the Cubs need clicking against a taxed Yankees bullpen that’s had to cover extra innings all season with the rotation banged up. New York’s lineup, without Judge, Bellinger and Stanton, is leaning heavily on Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez to manufacture offense, and that’s a lot to ask on the road against a pitcher throwing this cleanly.

Other Game Picks

The Yankees are just 2-8 in a recent 10-game stretch that dropped their record to .500 form, while the Cubs have won 8 of their last 10.

That split in recent form lines up directly with the absences. When a lineup loses its middle-of-the-order thump for two months, results like that follow. Wrigley Field’s quirks can level the playing field on a given afternoon, but this doesn’t look like a park-factor game so much as a talent and health mismatch working in Chicago’s favor.

New York still has enough arms and enough individual talent to make this competitive, and bettors shopping lines before locking in a side may want to check a DraftKings promo code, since the moneyline gap between books on this game is unusually wide for a matchup this well-covered.

Prediction and Best Bet

Chicago’s rotation edge and healthier lineup make it the more complete team on paper today, and the Cubs’ recent form backs that up. Take the moneyline rather than laying extra with the run line, since Imanaga is capable of a shutdown outing that keeps this from ever needing a two-run cushion.